Do what must be done. Part 1

Lose, but don't cry.

From its origin, the Ottawa Senators organization was built on losing. Not 'built on losing' in the way that the Maple Leafs have built a legacy of missing the playoffs, but rather using draft picks smartly and making conservative progress.

The losses from 1992-96 brought the Senators a slew of draft picks, including current Senators Daniel Alfredsson and Chris Phillips. Even Alexei Yashin proved valuable for a few seasons before being sent to the Islanders in exchange for Jason Spezza and Zdeno Chara. The ensuing seasons were prosperous, with the Senators collecting divisional and conference titles, and the President's trophy in 2003.

It appears that the prosperity bubble burst after the Senators went to the Stanley Cup finals in 2007. In 2008, the Sens were handily beaten by the Pittsburgh Penguins in the first round. This season, the Senators are languishing the NHL sub-basement. What happened?

Nothing lasts forever anymore (great song by Sloan, btw)

The Sens stopped losing. The draft picks stopped raining down upon Ottawa like the winter snow. Instead of supremely talented prospects like Marian Hossa, Martin Havlat or Jason Spezza impatiently waiting in the AHL for their shot at the big leagues, it's moderate prospects gathering on the baby Sens roster. No offence to Nick Foligno, but it's unlikely he'll score 40 goals in any season of his NHL career.

The NHL salary cap has brought some parity to the NHL. Did we not expect that there would be losers, as well as winners? While the Red Wings have remained at the top of the NHL, they are certainly the exception. The so-called "NHL hangover" is simply the dramatic headline for the phenomena we should come to expect. After good teams are built, they are dismantled by rising contract demands and free agency. No more dynasties. Not even in Detroit.

Stop screaming at ice cream

The demands from media and fans to force a bad team to be good are futile. It's like screaming at melting ice cream, hoping that your breath can stop time or suddenly change room temperature. The result is a team like the Toronto Maple Leafs. They constantly traded draft picks for veterans who were supposed to transplant some success into a lifeless team, but it never came. Only this season have Leafers come to realize that you have to put the ice cream back in the fucking fridge before it will congeal. Great examples currently include Chicago and Pittsburgh, who accumulated great draft picks, and voi-la, an incredibly talented team sprung from the ground.

The Senators time is up for now. They must go 30-12 in their remaining 42 regular-seaon to have a chance at making the playoffs. Who wants to trade away Jason Spezza, get some temporary relief for this season and land the #12 draft pick instead of #1 or #2? So let's lose, for the moment, and have faith that eventually our team will resurrect itself in time. We'll have reason enough to cheer next season while we wait for our beloved draft pick to take the ice.

Draft Jakub Gasparovic, short-handed hero

Three short-handed goals in 57 seconds. I think he just got vaulted a few dozen spots in the IIHF rankings. From IIHF.com:

TRENCIN, Slovakia – Slovakian junior player Jakub Gasparovic completed an incredible feat on Monday when his Dukla Trencin junior team faced Liptovsky Mikulas.

The 18-year-old forward scored three shorthanded goals in a 57-second span. His team was ahead 2-1 in the 16th minute of the game, when he scored his first of the trio. When the dust settled, Dukla Trencin held a 5-1 lead when his teammate Lukas Klima was let out of the penalty box.

And he's draft eligible! I don't care if it's just because he's in the Czech Slovak Slovnaft U20 Extraliga, it's damned impressive. "Gasparovic finished the game with five goals and three assists and has 73 points to his credit this season. The 18-year-old ist the scoring leader of the U20 Extraliga."

Wow.

The Ottawa Boo-Bird (Boobirdicus canadensis)

Sens Army is bitter these days.

Alexei Yashin started Ottawa's bitterness with his tremendously self-involved mid-contract renegotiation demands, and Sens fans let him know just how well-liked he was when he returned to the lineup, and every time he returned with the New York Islanders after that. Nowadays, other players are feeling (or hearing) Sens Army's anger, from Zdeno Chara (after walking away from a team that helped him develop from a sideshow attraction on Long Island to an elite defenceman) to Wade Redden (who, after receiving a standing ovation for all the good he did in town, had the boos rain down on him for [we assume] refusing to waive his no-trade clause twice and then walking away in the off-season) and, now, Joe Corvo (who demanded a trade because he wasn't a fan of Ottawa's small-town atmosphere and incredibly invasive hockey interest). And that's just with former Senators, there are plenty of others (Chris Pronger, Sidney Crosby, and lots more, I'm sure).

And the attendants to Scotiabank Place have no qualms booing current players, when they appear unmotivated or have an impotent powerplay opportunity. It's been happening a lot recently, and, after spending so much money to get in to the building, fans have a right to do so.

The 6th Sens blogger Graeme Nichols thinks booing Redden is a reflection of Ottawa fans "smartening up". SENS Town blogger Steve thinks it's high time Sens Army lets Corvo know that he didn't have it so bad.

This post is really just a observational thing, really. And I'd be interested to know who Sens Army enjoys booing the most, and how they feel about booing former heroes Redden and Corvo.

The weirdest thing about the failed road trip

"The weirdest thing about these two weeks wasn't that Jason Spezza was actually better than a point per game (3G, 4A, 7P, 6GP), or that the Senators finally appear prepared to waive Martin Gerber (two years too late, some would say), or even that a second line of Antoine Vermette (1G, 4A), Chris Kelly (2G, 1A), and Jesse Winchester (0G, 2A) was actually able to produce three secondary-scoring goals. It's that the Senators have somehow still not made a single trade, let alone a significant one, since the beginning of this travesty of a season. And, with apparent eagerness to start giving players away, the Senators are counting down the days until the John Tavares/Victor Hedman sweepstakes."

That's what I said on my other blog, the Northeast Division section of NHL Full Access. Thoughts?

The Rumour Mill: Goodbye, Gerber

Reports in the Ottawa Sun (although the link is to the Calgary Sun) are that the Senators are trying to trade Martin Gerber (good luck), and will be waiving the veteran goaltender if (read: when) they can't unload him through trade. I think it would be amazing if Bryan Murray could actually get an asset in return for Darth Gerber, but I think the waiver wire is the most likely situation, if these rumours have any merit.

And, if these rumours do hold water, then you've got to wonder about the timing. The Senators have lived with Gerber's inconsistency and fragility for the last two and a half seasons, and I don't think anyone actually believes that Brian Elliott will right the Senators' ship for a miracle comeback into contention. So why not ride out Gerber's contract, and save owner Eugene Melnyk a bit of money? It seems to me that something is amiss, and I would venture a guess that GM Bryan Murray has a big trade in the works, or knows that a team will claim Gerber on waivers or re-entry waivers.

Should the latter happen, it would be similar to the Ilya Bryzgalov situation last season. (With the one difference that Bryzgalov was a goaltender with a relatively high value, and Gerber has a ridiculously low value.) After guaranteeing Bryzgalov ice time and seeing J.S. Giguere take the reigns as the number one, Ducks GM Brian Burke was unable to trade Breezer so he sent him through waivers, where he knew that the Phoenix Coyotes--most likely among others--were waiting to claim him. Perhaps the same unspoken deal is in the works with Ottawa, which would serve to take at least some of Gerber's $3.7M salary off the books.

The former, however, seems a mite more likely. It's no secret that Murray is thirsting for a trade to shake things up, and there is similarly no secret that in the new NHL, you have to trade salary for salary. Rumours have circulated that the Sens are courting the Columbus Blue Jackets in a trade, and that the Edmonton Oilers may be interested in both Jason Spezza and Mike Fisher; that seems to be the most scuttlebut in terms of potential suitors.

If I were a betting man, I would think that Ottawa is getting a goaltender in return from whichever team they trade with. If Gerber is dumped, I don't see the Senators running with a one-two punch of Elliott and Alex Auld in nets, especially considering the season Elliott is havign in the AHL, and the long-term development plan that would have Ells join the big team next year if everything goes well. Ottawa has been mentioned as interested in Chicago's Nikolai Khabibulin in the past (including a hilarious two-for-two goalie-swap rumour around this time last season), and the 'Hawks seem to be running a 1A/1B scenario with Khabibulin and Cristobal Huet right now. The positive thing about Khabibulin's $6.75M salary is that he's on the last year of his contract, meaning Ottawa could sign, recruit, or otherwise acquire a starter in the off-season, but picking up that kind of salary would mean Ottawa would likely have to dump one of their larger salaries (the likes of Jason Spezza at $7M per year, Dany Heatley at $7.5 per year, or Mike Fisher at $4.2M per year). Daniel Alfredsson ($5.4M per year) isn't likely going anywhere, and most other contracts aren't big enough to make room for Khabby. So it's a matter of whether or not it would be constructive to trade Spezza, and whether you can convince Fisher or Heatley to waive their no-movement and no-trade clauses.

(Can I make one quick trade proposal? Yes, I realize that it's an excercise in futility and won't likely pan out at all, but hear me out: After Gerber is waived, Heatley and Christoph Schubert to Chicago for Khabibulin, Brent Seabrook, Kris Versteeg, Ben Eager, and Chicago's first-round pick in 2009. Hello, rebuild.)

In light of increasingly uncertain economic conditions, I do have a feeling that most GMs--Melnyk included--would like to pare down their payroll, especially when it comes to long-term contracts. It might be difficult to find someone willing to take on one of the Sens' bigger ones, but it seems obvious that even without economic uncertainty, the so-called 'Tampa Bay Model' of building around your big three forwards doesn't work without solid defence and reliable goaltending. So in the event of a trade involving one of the Senators' bigger stars, the return may not be market value, but it will come along with the intangible benefits of lower long-term expenditures--in light of the real-world dollars Melnyk would be spending and of with an eye towards a possibly lowering salary cap--and the freedom to devote a larger percentage of the salary cap to defence or goaltending.

If Gerber is on his way out of town, he will be far from the most popular player in Senators history. Although I did defend him at the beginning of the season, he has gained (and, in all honesty, has largely earned) a rap for allowing untimely goals and having a fragile psyche. Still, his statistics will bear out a much more reliable goaltender than he was in reality:

1. 49-36-8 record, fifth all-time Senator goaltender in wins
2. 2.76 GAA, ninth all-time among Senators goalies with 25 or more GP
3. .908 SP, fourth all-time among Senators goalies with 25 or more GP
4. 4 shutouts, seventh all-time in Senators' history
5. 52.7% winning percentage, sixth all-time among Senators goalies with 25 or more GP

So goodbye, Gerber, and good luck next season wherever you're playing (my money's on Switzerland).

No-trick pony: Rangers 2, Sens 0

Another loss. Another ugly loss. Maybe they didn't play that badly, but they paid for their mistakes, and the Ottawa Senators didn't take advantage of mistakes the New York Rangers make. So the resulting 2-0 loss should be no surprise.

Still, despite his first NHL loss, you've got to give Brian Elliott credit. He came into the game looking extremely confident, and made plenty of big saves--none bigger than a breakaway save he made in the third period. I'm not sure if he should want to stay in Ottawa, considering the shit he'll get here compared to the All-Star start he'd get in the AHL, but Bruce Garrioch is under the impression that the Sens are on the verge of waiving Martin Gerber, so Elliott might be up here for a while.

(In another strange development, the Senators seem to be closely linked with All-Star goaltenders everywhere: Elliot was voted to be the started in the AHL's all-star game, and Ray Emery might have been the best goaltender in the Continental Hockey League's all-star game last night. It's too bad we don't have an NHL all-star.)

I'll also give Filip Kuba credit for his play in his return to the Sens lineup. He got a bum rap in the Sun for some of his board work, but Kuba had good defensive coverage and a definite positive effect on offensive zone pressure. Too bad he can't score goals. Still, he pinched in to help out a few times, and was good at getting back into position quickly.

Rough game for Jesse Winchester. He had one shift with two terrible giveaways, and didn't look solid on the night. For Winnie to get success, he needs to get back to the simple, reliable play he was executing earlier in the season. Come to think of it, a lot of Senators could use to simplify their game significantly.

It really is a shame that Christoph Schubert doesn't want to play forward. He's about ten times more effective as a forward, as evidenced by his team-high four hits last night. And even when he takes a shot and has it blocked--as happens extremely often with Schubert--at least he's not the last line of defence before the opposition gets a breakaway. Stick with forward, Schubert, you're better at it, and Ottawa's better for it.

Elliott may be recalled for change's sake

The Ottawa Senators have recalled may recall goaltending prospect Brian Elliott from Binghamton in an effort to shake things in town. Elliott's had a good year in Bingo: He's among the league's top ten in goals-against average (2.31) and save percentage (0.926), was the AHL's player of the month for December, and will be the starting goaltender for the AHL's Canadian All-Star team.

Meanwhile, after a half-decent streak for Alex Auld, Ottawa's two goaltenders have been... not good. Auld and Martin Gerber have averaged 4.27 goals against (including empty-net goals, granted) in the last 11 games, and Ottawa's record has been 2-8-1.

Will Elliott help? Maybe. Will he answer all of our problems? Shit no. Will getting thrown into the fire help Elliott's development? Time will tell, but I doubt it.

The Rumour Mill: Dancing with Columbus

According to the Ottawa Sun, the Columbus Blue Jackets had two scouts at the Sens game in Boston last night. It's no secret that Columbus brass are desperate to make the playoffs (for the first time in franchise history), and it's similarly no secret that just about everyone on the Senators' roster is available for trade. Ottawa players might not have very high market values right now, but a change of scenery can sometimes shock a player into producing.

According to The Fourth Period, Columbus may be shopping for a first-line forward, a third-line forward, and a puck-moving defenceman. Ottawa's first-line forwards are unlikely to be dealt, and we're more desperate for a puck-mover, but there is no shortage of third-line forwards available right now. Antoine Vermette might be a good fit for Columbus' first or fourth line, but it's unclear what the Jackets might be offering in return. They are shopping first-round choices, but The Fourth Period cites the Columbus Dispatch in suggesting that Columbus is reluctant to dish off a first-round choice.

At this point, with GM Bryan Murray apparently looking at waiving some players to give them away for free and to make some cap relief, even a lower-round draft choice is pretty appealing. Still, if the Sens can turn some of their failed assets into a third first-round pick for 2009 (they've already got their own and that of the San Jose Sharks), the re-building process will be well on its way. It seems pretty obvious, though, that the Sens aren't going to be able to solve their problems in time to salvage this season, so all eyes are on the future.