More haters be hatin'

Bleacher Report's Greg Caggiano released his Eastern Conference predictions for 2008-09, and--surprise, surprise--he picked the Sens to finish out of the playoffs in tenth place. Here's his justification:

"When you hear the phrase "one-line team," the Ottawa Senators have to come to mind. Other then Daniel Alfredsson, Jason Spezza, and Dany Heatley, this team's offense on the bottom nine forwards is incredibly thin.

"On defense, they lost Wade Redden, and even though he had been struggling, I would still rather have him over Filip Kuba, who they just added in a trade with Tampa Bay.

"If they made one good signing is was the rugged and tough defenseman Jason Smith who will shore up the defense. The goaltending is a question mark with Martin Gerber and Alex Auld between the pipes."

I'm not going to try and debate the issues in this post, but check out my "Are the Sens really that bad?" posts on the forwards, defence, and (soon) goaltending. Long story short: No, they're not really that bad.

Senators GMs stick to their guns

An article on Bleacher Report brought up the ongoing trend of Ottawa Senators owners and general managers facing players whose contract demands are overzealous, sticking to their guns, and eventually forcing those players to fall in line or get traded.

The article mentions, of course, the recently-traded Andrej Meszaros and goes back to include Alexei Yashin, Zdeno Chara, and Martin Havlat on the list of Senators players whose salary demands didn't fit into the Senators' payroll structure. (Not included was Marian Hossa, whose sign-and-trade departure could rightfully have fallen under the criteria, but may have just been an oversight).

Although the article was a little overzealous at times--making contentions about some of the traded players that are either unfair or unfounded (including statements that all the Sens lost in Meszaros was "inconsistency, give aways [stet], and inaccurate shooting", that Chara "let Jason Pominville skate around him, Wade Redden, and Daniel Alfredsson to eventually score the series winning goal for Buffalo in the 2006 Eastern Semi-finals" and also that Chara openly questioned Alfredsson's leadership [which I don't remember happening directly])--the story brings up an interesting trend in modern Senators history.

What may be most interesting is the fact that these instances span over several general managers, and both owners the team has ever had. Meszaros was traded by current GM Bryan Murray, Havlat and Hossa were traded during the tenure of John Muckler, and Yashin was traded by Marshall Johnston in 2001. The first three listed were traded during the ownership of Eugene Melnyk, and the Yashin Saga was with former owner Rod Bryden. It is interesting in an era of overpaying for so many free agents, whether restricted or unrestricted, the Senators have managed to operate with relative frugality and responsibility in the face of so many apparent arms-races.

Murray today said that part of his reasoning in trading Meszaros, rather than allowing him to be (potentially, if Tampa Bay could acquire that elusive third-round pick) scooped up via a free-agent offer sheet for $5M a year, was to avoid further salary inflation among young defencemen (see a story in the Ottawa Citizen about his remarks here). Not to suggest the trade was a hugely Mother Theresa-like sacrifice for the Sens to make, but that kind of long-term thinking seems to be all but lost in today's NHL.

The Sens' best, according to E.J. Hradek

ESPN blogger E.J. Hradek went over a listing of the Northeast Division teams' best-ever players, including the Senators. His picks were Daniel Alfredsson as the best-ever forward, Wade Redden as the best-ever defenceman, and Patrick Lalime as the best-ever goaltender.

Something tells me that Hradek based his picks on what the players did while in a Senators uniform, and not based on pure skill (which is what I did in my all-time roster).

(via Kukla's Korner)

Are the Sens that bad? Part two: Defence

The Sens had a few problems--to put it nicely--last season, and defence was a huge one. Not just the team's defencemen, although many of them had their problems, but also a team-defence philosophy that would allow defencemen to have mistakes mitigated by backchecking forwards.

This year, with the acquisitions and hirings, should be different.

DEFENCE

Defensively, the Sens' defence will definitely be better. Offensively, it might be a different story. The Sens' d-corps has changed significantly since last season, and only two players who started the year--Anton Volchenkov and Chris Phillips--remain from that top-six. And they remain for good reason; defensive responsibility. The newly-signed Jason Smith is in the same mould, and should fit into a defensive system very well. And, although one knock on Filip Kuba is that he can commit defensive gaffes, he led the Lightning with 131 blocked shots last year. Combining the shot-blocking abilities of those four, you've got to wonder if the goaltenders will see any rubber by year's end.

When looking for production for the defence, though, the Sens might have to look pretty far. A lot of hopes are going to be placed on Kuba to lead the Sens' offensive rush, at least on the powerplay. Rookie Brian Lee will also be given a lot of rope, and the hopes will be that he can lead the Sens' second powerplay unit and play as well as he did at the end of last season. In the sixth spot will be one of Christoph Schubert (a natural defenceman who's been playing forward [quite effectively] against his wishes for the last two seasons), Alex Picard (a relatively unseasoned defenceman with some offensive potential), or Brendan Bell (a successful AHLer who's had limited NHL success).

It may turn out that the biggest acquisition for the defence was actually behind the bench rather than on it. Craig Hartsburg had a ten-year career as a defenceman for the Minnesota North Stars, and the belief is that he will be preaching a defence-first system, and demanding (here's that all-important idea in Senators' circles again) accountability and responsibility from his players. It might mean a few less creative offensive plays, and hopefully it means Jason Spezza won't be among the league-leaders in giveaways, but it will certainly mean a bigger emphasis on team defence for 2008-09.

Sens chasing players to Russia?

While reading a KHL season preview on the New York Times' Slapshot blog, I noticed just how many former Senators are going to be playing key roles for the various teams in the Russian league. Here is a listing of them:

1. Ray Emery, G, Atlant Mytishchi
   No need to rehash the Emery Saga.


2. Alexei Yashin, C, Lokomotiv Yaroslavl
   I don't really want to go over Yashin's Senators' career, either. It's well-documented.


3. Oleg Saprykin, C, CSKA Moscow
   Saprykin was a pretty big part of the fourth line during the Sens' 2007 cup run (even though he only had two points), but it was rumoured that GM Bryan Murray didn't like the qualifying offer issued to him.


4. Alexei Kaigorodov, C, Metallurg Magnitogorsk
   Drafted in the second round of 2002 by the Sens, Kaigorodov was pencilled in as Ottawa's second-line centre for the 2006-07 season, but when things didn't go his way he left North America and went back to Russia. The Sens traded his rights to Phoenix for Mike Comrie.


5. Petr Schastlivy, LW, CSKA Moscow
   Another second-line centre hopeful, Schastlivy played parts of five seasons with the Senators, but never really panned out. He was traded to Anaheim in 2004.


6. Joel Kwiatkowski, D, Severstal Cherepovets
   Kwiatkowski had a few stints with the Senators, but played most of his time with the organization for the Grand Rapids Griffins when they were the Sens' affiliate. He also had a stint with the Binghamton Senators.
   


7. Mike Fountain, G, Lada Togliatti
   Played in two games for the Senators, and 88 for the Griffins. Not spectacular
   


8. Ivan Ciernik, F, Sibir Novosibirsk
   Good ol' Ivan was drafted in the ninth round of the 1996 draft, and played 29 games for the Sens while being bumped around all sorts of AHL teams. Then he went to a German league, and now he's in the KHL.
   


9. Filip Novak, D, Dinamo Riga
   No, Filip Kuba is not the first defenceman named Filip that ever played for Ottawa. Novak played 11 games for the Sens in 2005-06, and 64 for Binghamton in the same season. He did well, too, scoring 58 points for the B-Sens in that season.
   

I guess there's something about the Senators' franchise and chasing players out of the NHL. Which is kind of a shame... good to see Russians like Ilya Zubov and Alexander Nikulin

aren't afraid to try and work their way onto the team.

Nycholat traded to Vancouver for F Shannon

As I predicted, Sens GM Bryan Murray cleared some room on the Ottawa blue line today by trading Lawrence Nycholat to the Vancouver Canucks for winger Ryan Shannon.

Shannon went undrafted, but was signed by--wait for it--Bryan Murray when he worked for Anaheim in 2005 (Edit: Murray was already with the Sens when Shannon was signed. It just seems like something he'd do... he probably initiated the process. Thanks for the correction, MoJo). He's been up and down from AHL to NHL since then, having scored 20 points over his 80 career NHL games. He's averaging more than a point a game in the AHL, though, so Binghamton fans should be happy to see this trade as some much-needed offensive help.

He was re-signed by the Canucks in July to a one-year contract which NHLNumbers.com has estimated will pay him $605k. I'm not sure if the contract is a two-way deal, but wouldn't make much sense if it was one-way considering the Sens' current abundance of third- and fourth-line forwards.

EDIT: A story in the Ottawa Sun confirmed that Shannon's deal is indeed a two-way contract, and also noted that Nycholat had asked for a trade--probably so that the former AHL All-Star could get a more prominent role on an NHL defence corps.

Are the Sens that bad? Part one: Forwards

I've seen a lot of low expectations for the Senators this season. Heard a lot of negative talk, and come across a lot of prognostications of incredible, unavoidable failure.

Through it all, I've had to wonder whether or not I am a crazy homerized fan, simply looking at the situation with the ultimate in optimism. I've liked the deals that GM Bryan Murray has made so far this off-season, and I'm pretty confident in how competitive the 2008-09 team is going to be.

Then I saw it. Vindication. The incredibly optimistic 2008-09 The Score Sports Forecaster magazine. Not only did they predict Daniel Alfredsson to win the Selke Trophy, and Dany Heatley to be the Rocket Richard Trophy winner, and those two, along with Jason Spezza, to finish in the league's top eight in scoring. They predicted that the Sens would win the Northeast Division--ahead of the surging Montreal Canadiens and the reborn Boston Bruins--and finish third in the conference. That even strikes me as optimistic, but if a few things go right, I think that it's completely within the realm of possibility. After all, where have the Sens gotten worse since their NHL-record incredible start last season? And why can't they re-establish themselves as the dominant team that set that record?

FORWARDS

The Sens lost three forwards from last season, and four if you include Patrick Eaves. We could prehaps have placed high hopes on Eaves, but his injury problems were well-known, and his offensive potential was likely limited. Nothing personal with Randy Robitaille, but his output will not be missed, and will be easily replace by a full season of Nick Foligno. And Brian McGrattan's presence may be missed, but he rarely played even when he wasn't scratched last season. The only argument, really, that you can make is regarding late-season acquisition Cory Stillman. His offensive abilities would certainly have been useful in spreading out the offensive load, and he had some chemistry with Mike Fisher.

But Stillman wasn't present during the Sens best times of the year, notably that first 15-20 games. The hopes seem to be on Jarkko Ruutu to add some grit, and to draw penalties so the top PP unit--likely Alfredsson, Heatley, and Spezza with, I would guess, Christoph Schubert and Filip Kuba on the points--can get some easy playing time. Antoine Vermette will, once again, be given an opportunity to get serious playing time in the top-six, and with some powerplay time. After Ruutu and Vermette, a lot is going to fall on the young shoulders of Foligno, Jesse Winchester, and Cody Bass. Although the three will (possibly) enter their first full seasons as NHLers, Foligno and Bass both demonstrated their maturity last year, and Winchester is almost 25 and has graduated university after leading his ECAC team for four years--a certain sign of maturity.

Replacing Robitaille and McGrattan with rounded players should be an improvement for this season. Although Stillman will be missed, increased production by Vermette, a more consistent effort by Chris Neil, and a full season of properly-utilized Dean McAmmond and Shean Donovan, along with some rookie contributions, should complement the pesty nature of Ruutu to give the Sens an improved offensive line. Perhaps not as improved as it would be had they signed Marian Hossa or one of the other free agents, but improved nonetheless.

(I'll be posting parts two and three, on defence and goaltending, in the coming days.)

Defensive renaissance

Ken Warren of the Ottawa Citizen wrote a pretty good column yesterday (Sunday) about the incredible changes that have gradually changed the Sens' defensive corps since last season.

At the start of 2007-08:

1. Redden
2. Phillips
3. Volchenkov
4. Meszaros
5. Corvo
6. Richardson

And now, 2008-09, pending further movement:

1. Phillips
2. Volchenkov
3. Kuba
4. Smith
5. Lee
6. Picard

You'll notice only two common names between the two seasons, a 67 per cent turnover. Other changes for 2008-09 include defensive depth, signing Brendan Bell and drafting Erik Karlsson, Patrick Wiercoch, and Mark Borowiecki.

Solid story, and highly recommended to anyone who hasn't yet read it.