The Curse of the European Experiment

Feb. 23, 2009: Tom Renney, NYR: 31-23-7, 69 points, winning percentage: .566

Feb. 15, 2009: Michel Therrien, PIT: 27-25-5, 59 points, winning percentage: .517

Feb. 2, 2009: Craig Hartsburg, OTT: 17-27-7, 41 points, winning percentage: .402

Nov. 15, 2008: Barry Melrose, TBL: 5-7-4, 14 points, winning percentage: .437

Four coaches. Four teams that started the season in Europe, two (Ottawa and Pittsburgh) in Sweden and two (New York and Tampa Bay) in Finland. Is it a coincidence? Probably. But it might not be.

A season begun in Europe means a lot of things. One positive thing Sens fans were looking for was team bonding, bringing a team that had a difficult year and some significant changes closer together under the team's banner. It also means, however, an unusually shortened training camp and atypical exhibition games. It means a circus-like beginning to the season, that cuts into the regular season, and certainly offers some distraction from the team's focus on the season. I don't know if any of that affected these teams' respective performance this season, but it's a very interesting coincidence.

Next season, four more games in Europe: Detroit versus St. Louis in Stockholm, and Chicago takes on Florida in Helsinki. Let's see how that goes.

Fight card: Sens v. Bolts, Dec. 13, 2008

Chris Neil v. Zenon Konopka, 7:10 first period:



Verdict: Neil, by a mile. Konopka held himself up admirably, and waved off the mercy linesman split-up, but Neil probably landed a dozen punches over all--some of the punishing variety. Unfortunately, it looked like Neil's best shots missed, including that one where he smoked the glass about three-quarters of the way through.

Necessary win: Sens 2, Lightning 0

One thing is for sure: I shouldn't be this relieved after a 2-0 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning. At least I don't think I should have, but it seems like this team may not be as good as I--and so many other fans--like to believe they are.

I'll use one sentence to describe Martin Gerber in the game, and you can extrapolate that to represent the way the whole team played: It wasn't pretty, but it worked. Gerber may not have been as deserving as Alex Auld for the team's first shutout of the season (Auld should have had it in game two), but he earned it on the night in stopping all 24 shots from the Tampa Bay Lightning.

I've got a very strange feeling after this game. I'm not sure who was the best Ottawa Senators player on the night. Daniel Alfredsson had a great game (he scored the empty-netter), but it wasn't anything we haven't come to expect from him. Chris Phillips and Filip Kuba both played well on defence, and Jason Smith was solid in clearing the front of the net. I guess I'll follow CBC's lead, though, and give the first star to Gerber.

Dany Heatley definitely did not have his best game, or anywhere near it. I don't usually rag on stars because it's so cliché, but he looked bad. A lot of it likely has to do with his style, and it's inability to blend with the style this lesser-skilled Senators squad has to play: Heatley can't play a puck-retrieval game. It doesn't help that he's rarely skating full-out and always seems to have his stick 18 inches off the ice, cocked and ready to go, but some nights he forechecks hard and steals pucks. Tonight wasn't one of those nights.

Good on the second power-play unit scoring the eventual game-winner, with some nice passing from Antoine Vermette to Nick Foligno to Ilya Zubov to Brendan Bell to Alex Picard to mesh. It was like high school gym class or intramurals, where everyone had to touch the puck before you could take a shot on net. Great shot by Picard, that likely deflected off a Lightning defender, and was Zubov's first NHL point. (Although it meant Cody Bass was pulled out of the lineup, it was nice to see Zubov and it sounds like he's going to get a few games to showcase his skills.) It's too bad the first powerplay unit barely got a sniff offensively, though, because going 1-for-8 against Tampa Bay on the powerplay--no matter how well Bolts' tender Mike Smith plays--is not good enough.

And, part of the powerplay problems, Jason Spezza has to start shooting the puck, he looks afraid to at times. There was one time when he was in past the defenders (just barely, granted, but still), and he held up to wait for someone to pass to. Just because playmaking is his specialty doesn't mean it's got exclusivity on everytime he touches the puck. He finished the night with a single shot on net.

Zubov had a solid game on the whole, and Brian Lee played... well enough. It looked like he'd rediscovered that poise he had at the end of last year early on in the game, but a few defensive gaffes in the third period didn't make his case. He might stick around anyway, but I think he's more likely to head back to Bingo once Anton Volchenkov is ready to go. He wasn't a liability, but he certainly didn't outplay any of the Sens' other five defenders.

What does Craig Hartsburg do with goaltending for next game, on Tuesday against Atlanta? I think Auld has played well enough to keep the starter's reins, for now, and Hartsburg has handled the goaltending situation much better than John Paddock did last season. With two solid games in a row, though, Gerber is making himself a case if Auld falters. But please, don't falter, Auld. We all know what The Gerber Effect does to Darth once he's given something to lose.

Final note: Good to hear that Martin St-Louis only had eight stitches after the linesman's skate clipped him in the face. It looked like it might have caught him in the eye, but apparently it went along the bridge of his nose or something. Maybe he should think about wearing a visor, no matter what Don Cherry might say about him.

A month into the Meszaros trade

When Tampa Bay traded Filip Kuba, Alex Picard, and a first-round draft pick to the Sens in exchange for Andrej Meszaros, they were certainly thinking long-term about the asset they acquired. A month into the trade, however, Ottawa looks like the far-and-away winner--so far.

For the Senators, one top-six defender was turned into two top-six defenders. Kuba leads the team in ice time with an average of 24:28 per game, is on the first powerplay unit, and regularly steps in to kill penalties. Although he may be on an unsustainable pace, his 14 assists (tied for second-highest in the league) are more than anyone would have predicted, and he has at least one in 11 of Ottawa's 14 games so far.

Picard hasn't been quite the success Kuba has been, but he's made some strides. Whether because of his play or his contractual status, he's leapt ahead of Brian Lee, Luke Richardson, and Brendan Bell on the depth chart, and plays with Kuba on the Sens' first powerplay unit. His four points (2G, 2A) should improve as he gets more comfortable, and plays more alongside Kuba.

Similar to Kuba, Meszaros leads the Lightning in ice time per game with 24:47 per game (just three seconds ahead of D partner Paul Ranger). Although he only has four points (all assists), he's got more points than any other defenceman on Tampa Bay. Considering the ice time he gets, the Lightning have to be concerned with the numbers Meszaros is putting up--especially with more time on the powerplay per game (2:42) than any defenceman other than Ranger. Meszaros is also an assistant captain, but I can't really speak to his role in the locker room.

This equation doesn't take into account the first-round pick the Sens acquired, which may be packaged up in a trade or simply used to select another prospect for the Sens' depth chart. It also doesn't take into account the contract status of the players, though; although Meszaros' cap hit is about 200k more (EDIT: fixed) than that of Kuba and Picard combined, he's signed on for another five years. Pending any re-signings, Kuba is an unrestricted free agent after this season, and Picard has one more year on his deal.

So it looks like the Sens have won the deal so far, but we won't know for sure for at least a few seasons.

Sens get shotout: Bolts 3, Sens 2 (SO)

Naturally, I didn't get to see the game last night because it wasn't on TV anywhere, but I did get some impressions based on what I heard on the radio and have read in the newspapers. Overall, the impression that I get is that the Senators had a solid game, but came up against a hot goalie in Mike Smith (who stopped 29 of 31 shots on the night).

The first period, and especially the first few minutes, were dominated by the Senators. I think I heard Jesse Winchester's name half a dozen times in the first few, and he sounded like he was buzzing even if he's still looking for that first NHL goal. And Daniel Alfredsson had a great chance on an open net just 18 seconds into the game, but it went wide harmlessly and the period ended in a scoreless draw.

Antoine Vermette ended his pointless streak eight minutes into the second, and added an assist on Dany Heatley's goal later in the second. His play recently has been very good, and it sounds like he's starting to develop some chemistry with Heatley and Jason Spezza. I'm glad that coach Craig Hartsburg decided not to cancel the CASH-Line-split at the first (or second [or third]) sign of adversity, because a few minutes in a couple of games is not long enough to find out if it will work or not. And it's not like he has a disinclination to reuniting them at key points in games and on the powerplay.

Once again, Alex Auld had a solid game for the Senators. I really hope he continues doing so, because I can't stand talking and reading about goaltending so much.

The shootout is still a huge weakness for the Senators (add it to the list, I guess). The team is 7-18 all-time in shootouts, and 0-1 this season. Maybe it's because the best all-around players are assumed to be the best in the shootout, which is obviously not the case: The Sens' first shooter was Vermette, which was fine and fair, but choosing Alfredsson--who missed the net, is 4-for-15 now, and admitted that he doesn't like the shootout--and Heatley--who is 3-for-17 and terrible in shootouts--ahead of the Sens' best shooter-outer (there's got to be a better word than that) Jarkko Ruutu--who is 7-for-13 and hilarious--doesn't make any sense. Ruutu was the fifth shooter, and to save the best shooter-outer until after the game could logically be over is simply dumb. The Sens' shootout depth chart should, in my opinion, read as follows:

1. Antoine Vermette
2. Jarkko Ruutu
3. Jason Spezza
4. Daniel Alfredsson
5. Dean McAmmond
6. Dany Heatley
7. Mike Fisher
8. Nick Foligno
9. Chris Kelly
10. Jesse Winchester
    

Interestingly enough, defenceman Filip Kuba--who added to his point total last night with an assist--has tried three shootouts, and is 0-for-3 so far. Let's save him until later rounds.

And under the 'give Donovan some credit' file, Shean Donovan had less ice time than any other player on either team once again Saturday, with 6:38 played. Which is higher than his 5:46 season average. He had one shift in the third period, which lasted 34 seconds. The guy is fifth on the team in scoring, for crying out loud, and he works as hard as anyone on the team. If the system is going to be hard forechecking, backchecking, and bodychecking, Donovan is your exemplar. So why underutilize him? I'm not proposing he play anything like 20:00 a game, but is 10:00 so much to ask? Especially in a game where special teams didn't play such a role, like last night. Give the guy a chance.

Assessing the Meszaros trade

As Ben reported earlier, TSN.ca has confirmed that the Senators have traded Andrej Meszaros to the Tampa Bay Lightning for defencemen Filip Kuba and Alex Picard as well as a first-round draft pick (originally the San Jose Sharks') for the 2009 NHL Entry Draft. Does this make the Senators a better team?

The Sens get more defensive depth, including a few more offensive defencemen. Kuba, a nine-year NHL veteran, has 207 points (55G, 152A) in 531 games, plus 13 playoff points in 24 playoff games. He put up similar numbers to Meszaros, but was a -8 while Meszaros was a +5. He may break into the Senators' top-four, but I think it's more likely he'll be playing in the bottom pairing.

Picard is much younger, but has scored a decent 28 points (6G, 22A) in 92 NHL games. He will probably battle with Lawrence Nycholat, Brendan Bell, and Matt Carkner for the Sens' sixth D-spot, unless Christoph Schubert is slated to play defence.

In terms of salary cap, Kuba is on the final year of a contract that will pay him $3M, which is about the amount the Sens were looking to pay Meszaros. As an added benefit, his contract situation will allow Bryan Murray to assess the situations of defensive prospects Brian Lee, Mattias Karlsson, Ben Blood, Tomas Kudelka, and Erik Karlsson for the 2009-10 season. Picard has two years left on an entry-level deal a deal he signed in June (thanks for the correction, Morgan), and is making $750K this season and $850k next year. In essence, if Meszaros signs the $4-5M contract that's been rumoured, the Sens will be saving cap space by acquiring extra defensive depth, which may allow for further defensive help, or another forward.

If I were to choose between a Senators' roster with Meszaros or one with Kuba/Picard on the blue line, I would certainly pick one with Meszaros. But sometimes the salary cap forces your hand. While I'm not unhappy with the trade, I will be happier if the cap space saved is used to hire some more offensive help.

ADDENDUM: I would also like to take a moment in unabashed self-congratulation to point you to my prediction from November 2007 that Meszaros would be gone this off-season.

Meszaros traded(!)

Looks like the pressure that Tampa put on Murray has worked.

Meszaros has been traded for Filip Kuba, Alex Picard, and a 1st round pick.

Kuba, a 31 year-old defender, collected 31 points in 75 games last year.

Now back to the weekend. I've got two fucking jobs.

Alfie 8, Lightning 4

You might be wondering why nothing was posted regarding the Sens' 8-4 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning on Thursday. That's because I didn't feel the need to say anything; Daniel Alfredsson's 7-point performance spoke for itself.

Lightning strikes: Tampa 2, Ottawa 0

An ugly shutout loss to the worst team in the Eastern Conference. I didn't see the game, so I can't comment on it, but the losses of Dany Heatley and Daniel Alfredsson were certainly felt by the rest of the Senators.

Speaking of Alfredsson, according to the Ottawa Sun, he won't play today against the Philadelphia Flyers, either.

Back to the loss to Tampa Bay: The difference in the game was an ugly powerplay rebound goal by Martin St-Louis. The second goal was an empty-netter by Vincent Lecavalier.

Ray Emery started for the Sens, and he stopped 24 of 25 overall, so must have done alright. According to the NHL highlights package, though, Johan Holmqvist had to make a lot more difficult saves than Rayzor (seven Sens chances, while Emery was there twice). Maybe not the most accurate representation, but still.

A promising sign were the players who had chances for the Senators, with seven different guys supplying the Sens scoring chances (Antoine Vermette, Chris Phillips, Mike Fisher, Wade Redden, Anton Volchenkov, Shean Donovan, and Andrej Meszaros). While none of those scoring chances came off the stick of Jason Spezza--the last man standing from the CASH line--he set up at least two of them in the 26 minutes of ice time played. Ottawa finished with 25 shots on Holmqvist.

The quick turnaround to play Sunday evening against Philadelphia will likely not benefit the Senators. With Philly 9-2 in their last 11 game, I have a feeling that in order to come anywhere close to a win the Sens will need a show-stopping performance from Martin Gerber.

Alfie's out, Emery's in

It is official: Daniel Alfredsson will not play tonight against the Lightning. I don't know why he would... I mean, it's the Lightning. No need to rush anything and risk making injuries worse.

In other news, Ray Emery is starting tonight. Two days after Martin Gerber played well and stopped 36 of 37 in Ottawa's 5-1 victory over the Hurricanes. The only explanation I can think of is that John Paddock wants Rayzor to start against a weaker team so The Gerber starts against the stronger Philadelphia Flyers on Sunday. That's a strange new tactic, however, as Paddock was never afraid to start the same goalie on back-to-back nights earlier in the season...

Bizarro Sens - 4-3 OT win over T-Bay

This might be a first. Usually the Sens are losing and then the coach would reunite the CASH line of Daniel Alfredsson, Jason Spezza, and Dany Heatley to get the team back in the game... against Tampa Bay on Saturday, it was the opposite. After CASH was on for Tampa's first two goals and the Sens were down 2-0 quickly, John Paddock bumped Alfie down to the second line with Mike Fisher and Randy Robitaille, which brought the Sens back into the game. It's like the bizarro world in Superman.

Dean McAmmond lucked out when the CASH line was dismantled, and I've got to agree with Don Brennan (not something I say very often) that D-Mac should be a good fit there. Unfortunately after three shifts with those guys he had to leave due to the flu, but hopefully Paddock gives him another chance because Deaner'd be great there. (I never try and hide my pro-McAmmond bias.)

After McAmmond had to leave, Antoine Vermette got a shot at first-line play, and he looked like he relished the opportunity. He was all over, and looked like a nice fit. He'd work out well there, also. Ropes Robitaille continued his streak of one two-goal game a month, and scored the Sens' first and second goals to get the team back in the game. As for Fisher, he had a hell of a game, scoring the game-winner in overtime and notching an assist to boot. The Sens' other goal was Heatley's 25th; he's halfway to 50 at the exact halfway point of the season.

Sens clinch playoff spot by beating expansion brethren

Apres une longue journee de ski, c'etait super de voir les Senateurs gagner une partie. Tout le monde qui skiait a passe la fin de semaine a recuperer devant les parties de hockey...

Senators 7 - 2 Lightning

On Saturday the sens showed why some teams are starting to fear a playoff date with Ottawa. We've got a bona fide scorer in Dany Heatley, a goaltender that's scary-good when hot and secondary scoring on offense and defense to round it out. Joe Corvo picked up a couple points and showed how effective he can be as an offensive defenseman.

I'm starting to feel good about our chances in the playoffs - but I don't believe anyone in Ottawa has the same 'we're so damn talented' attitude, as was the case last year. I'm even starting to think that we have a chance of catching Buffalo - we're 5 points behind then with 6 games remaining... or am I just being overly-optimistic now?

In the Drive for Five-ty Heatley picked up two goals and now has 45 goals with 6 games to play. It looks like he's heating up(no pun intended) for the rest of the regular season. Right now, I would bet on it.

The sens' 6 remaining regular season games are against:

Boston
Montreal
NY Islanders
New Jersey
Pittsburgh
Boston

Much will be made of the late-season game against the Penguins, but I consciously choose to make nothing of that game because we never know whether the Senators in the playoffs will match the sens of the regular season.