Blame Gerber: Sens lost money this season

Sorry to distract you from the Conference Finals, but there's a bit of bad news for the Sens. In addition to not winning the Stanley Cup, the Ottawa Senators actually lost money this season. The reason? Martin Gerber.

But Ben, you say, he hasn't played for the Senators for more than a year. Apparently we fans lost a lot of faith in the boys during that far-from-fateful 2008-09 season, and the ticket sales have yet to recover. The article goes on to state that the Senators would have had to make the second round of these playoffs in order to break even.

That just makes me wonder how much that overtime goal by Matt Carkner in Game 5--which sent the series back to Ottawa for a sold out Game 6--was worth to the bottom line...  And why isn't that amount added to his measly $900,000 annual contract? The man played a lot of minutes!

Edit: Got my game #s mixed up there. Game 6 was played in Ottawa.

Rid of bad eggs, Senators flourishing

Could it be that Bryan Murray's master plan is working?

The Senators rushed goaltender Pascal Leclaire following their win over the Montreal Canadiens on Saturday night, looking every bit the gelling unit that they're meant to be at this point of the season.

Things are coming together nicely right now. Leclaire was coming off another solid game; Alex Kovalev gave Habs fans every reason to want him back; The past couple of games, the Sens increased depth has given the team a new dimension.

Getting rid of a few so-called bad eggs has apparently done wonders for the club.

I've never been a subscriber to the notion that players like Ray Emery or Dany Heatley can single-handedly bring about the downfall of a hockey team. Especially considering the fact that, in both cases, main-stream journalists have been reluctant to explicitly state the reason for their departure (moreso for Emery, but I'm sure there's another story for Heatley). Emery can't be blamed for the inconsistent play of Martin Gerber, and Heatley can't be blamed for the Senators only having one line capable of scoring.

But rather than dwelling on the past, Murray looked forward.

There are no stories about Sens players running amok in Hummers these days. It's all about hockey. And that's exactly the way that Murray planned it. The team is playing well, and the players seem to be focused on winning each game.

The Sens are a long, long way from Stanley Cup contenders these days, but at least we're hearing more about the team and less about the troubles of individual players. And apparently, that leads to wins.

WHAT?!?!?! Gerbs to Toronto!

Wow. They must have absolutely no faith a) Vesa Toskala or b) Their team's ability to miss the playoffs.

Shock at first. Now, an evil smile. Enjoy that albatross, Leafers.

The Rumour Mill: Trading Neil, Kuba, Schubert, giving Gerber

A couple of stories in the Ottawa Sun today regarding moves that the Senators may be doing prior to the NHL Trade Deadline on next Wednesday, March 4, 2009.

First off, contrary to the thoughts of those who saw the Mike Comrie acquisition as the actions of a buyer, GM Bryan Murray has announced that his asking price for the team's tradeables are draft picks and prospects.

According to the story, Chris Neil is looking for a 127% raise over the $1.1M he's making this season, and is apparently asking for a deal in the $2.5M range. The Senators are apparently offering him $1.5, but Murray has likely decided he can't fit Neil at $2M+ into his long-term plans or a deal would be done by now. Also in the story, however, was an interesting note suggesting that Neil wouldn't mind going to a team with a chance to make a run for the cup--which would certainly include the San Jose Sharks and the Detroit Red Wings, who have both been rumoured to have interest in Neil (as has the Edmonton Oilers). It would be a shame if the career Senators was traded for sentimental reasons, but he certainly had an off-season last year, and this year--despite increased physical effectiveness--his offensive numbers leave a lot to be desired (2G, 4A, 6P, -12).

The Sens' biggest payoff, though, could come from a deal involving Filip Kuba. He's the team's highest-scoring defenceman with 28 points (1G, 27A), and is on pace for a career-high 40 points. He's making $3M this season, and looking for a raise to $4M, according to the Sun. Assuming Ottawa is not able to re-sign Kuba, he should bring a decent return; at least the second- and third-round picks that Mathieu Schneider was worth, and it's certainly possible he'd be worth a package including a first-rounder or a pretty good prospect.

With Dean McAmmond already dealt (*sniff*), that leaves one final pending UFA: Martin Gerber. According to another Sun story, Murray has said he's heard of a few teams interested in Gerber, and will likely be putting him on re-entry waivers to dump half of his remaining salary. The Calgary Flames and Buffalo Sabres are apparently two interested teams. How hilarious would it be if the Sabres made a run for the cup with Gerber and Patrick Lalime as their two goaltenders?

Oh yeah, and we're still waiting on the apparently inevitable trade of Christoph Schubert. The guy hasn't played in more than twenty days, I hope it's not Ottawa's side that's holding out on this trade.

Gerber a... boost? In Binghamton?

Okay, maybe that title is a little bit harsh. There has never been any issue with the personality that Martin Gerber brought to his teams. He just hasn't been consistent or reliable enough on the ice. But still, it is interesting to see that his demotion to the Binghamton Senators has helped that team compensate for their loss of an AHL All-Star (Brian Elliott) and maintain their presence in the AHL's playoff race.

According to an article in the Binghamton Press & Sun Bulletin, Gerber has, indeed, been a pretty valuable addition to the B-Sens--particularly in terms of leadership. His statistics certainly haven't been mind-blowing, with a record of 6-5, one shutout, 2.57GAA, and 0.920SP. Still, his devotion to the game and to his new team appear to be pretty valuable to his teammates. From the story:

Indeed, for the man who opened last fall as the No. 1 goaltender in Ottawa, little has gone according to plan this season. But in a potentially prickly situation - a $3.7 million goaltender, assigned to Binghamton 24 days ago after a disappointing season in the NHL - he has continued to make a smooth transition onto his new team.

"It's been awesome," said goaltender Jeff Glass, whose locker sits next to Gerber's at the Broome County Veterans Memorial Arena. "I've never once heard him complain, or argue. ... From the second he came down here, he was asking questions about what place we were in. And he really joined with this team, and jelled with this team.

[...]

The Ottawa Sun also reported last month that "it's almost a certainty" Gerber will join the Swiss national team for the International Ice Hockey Federation's World Championship, which runs April 24 to May 10 in his native Switzerland. The AHL's regular season ends April 12.

Asked Thursday if the World Championship is indeed in his plans, Gerber said: "The plan is to make the playoffs here, and go deep there. That's the plan. And you know, whatever happens after that, I haven't really thought about it."

[...]

"It would be easy to pack it in," he said. "But you're a professional, and you want to play hockey after all. And there's certain stuff in hockey you can't control. And there's people involved who make decisions, and all you can do is put your best effort out there. And hopefully you get to a point where it's good enough to play where you want to play."

Binghamton currently sits in fourth place in the East Division with 66 points, six ahead of fith-place Philadelphia. As the top four seeds in each division make the playoffs, they are currently sitting pretty in a playoff spot for the first time since 2005--but with another 25 games left in the season, Gerber and Glass are going to have to keep their games in top notch form if they're going to hold onto that playoff spot.

Schubert and Smith scratched against New Jersey

According to the Ottawa Sun, both Jason Smith and Christoph Schubert are going to sit out tonight's game in favour of younger, more offensively-minded teammates. With tonight's game coming against the young and speedy New Jersey Devils, it looks like coach Craig Hartsburg is trying to fight fire with fire.

Although Schubert is probably used to the whole benching thing, Smith was visibly disappointed, the story said:

"Obviously surprised and disappointed," said Smith, who was clearly frustrated after today's morning skate. "You become a player in this game to play games and to help a team have success."

With Android Volchenkov returning to the lineup, Smith was benched in favour of (relative) youngsters Alex Picard, Brian Lee, and Brendan Bell, all of whom have significantly more offensive upside than the wily veteran. Hartsburg's mentality, the story said, was that the d-corps needed to balance the defensive defencemen (Chris Phillips, Volchenkov, and to an extent Filip Kuba) with the more offensive ones. (Can I take a moment to gloat about predicting there could be a reasonable chance Smith would sit out yesterday? Kthanx.)

Although Smith is justified in his frustration, at least he knows he won't be missing too much time. At $2.6M, he's making too much money to sit on the sidelines for an extended period, and the Senators will have to decide soon which of Bell or Lee will be sent back down to Binghamton. The B-Sens need as much defensive help as they can get to keep their playoff hopes in good standing. (In other news, Martin Gerber will be assigned to Binghamton to [hopefully] help out their goaltending situation. Good luck to him; honestly, I wish him the best.)

Schubert, on the other hand, has little reassurance. The Senators went out of their way to re-call Peter Regin from Binghamton today, which is why Schubert is sitting. He is, once again, left to wonder not only about his place on this team, but his place in the league in general. Schubert definitely has a lot to think about in this off-season, and a lot to discuss with GM Bryan Murray (if he's not talking to him already). (I'll also note that I correctly predicted Schubert would be the odd man out with Regin called up, thank you very much.)

Here's my next prediction: Regin won't be up here for too long unless the Sens make a trade (involving a forward) soon, and one of Lee or Bell (likely Bell, as unfair as it may be) will be assigned to Binghamton after tonight's game/test or within the week.

D-Day for Gerber (UPDATED)

It's finally here: The day we figure out just what is going to happen to Martin Gerber. He and Sens GM Bryan Murray are expected to sit down today and has out his options, because returning to the Ottawa Senators isn't one of them.

It remains to be seen if playing in the NHL at all is one of them, either. Apparently, as reported in the Calgary Sun, the Calgary Flames may be looking at Gerber as a possible backup and insurance policy for workhorse goaltender Mikka Kiprusoff, but that's certainly not a done deal--and it remains to be seen how it would be done (whether through trade or waiver-wire acquisition) if it is to be done. A few other teams have been rumoured at time to have interest in Gerber, so it's possible that if Calgary GM Darryl Sutter is actually interested, he could make a trade rather than run the risk of another team nabbing Gerber on re-entry waivers before Calgary gets the opportunity. The good thing for another team picking Gerber up on re-entry is that the receiving team would only face a cap hit of one-half of Gerber's remaining salary, an estimated $750k.

If there's not interest from other NHL squads, there's still the possibility of Gerber being 'loaned' to a European squad, which would at least get his salary off the books for the Senators.

And technically the AHL is still an option, but it seems unlikely. Owner Eugene Melnyk has said that he won't play major-league salaries to minor-league pro players, and one assumes the Gerber situation to date has been a one-time, short-term exception to try and get Gerber's salary unloaded. And Sens brass, including Tim Murray, have at least suggested that they wouldn't force Gerber to play in the AHL. Still, with an uncertainty in Binghamton's goaltending situation, fans would likely choose Gerber over their current situation.

Whatever happens, it's finally over. It might seem harsh for Sens fans to be celebrating, but I'd be willing to bet that Martin Gerber is more than ready to end this chapter of his professional hockey career and begin the next one himself.

UPDATE: Listening to Gord Wilson on the Team 1200 this afternoon, it sounds like Gerber is highly unlikely to head to a European team because they are so late in their season. Combined with the apparent fact that a trade with whichever GM is interested would include receiving the same cap hit as we'd be sending away, and the fact that Michael Sharp quoted Ottawa Director of Hockey Operations Brent Flahr as having said that re-entry waivers aren't an option for the Senators right now, maybe it's more likely that Gerber will be headed back to the AHL.

Gerber to be waived

According to reports on Bingo blogger Michael Sharp's blog, assistant GM Tim Murray has said that Martin Gerberwill be put on waivers today, available to any teams interested.

"We've sent out a memo to the other teams saying he was available. And he'll go on waivers (Thursday), and then we'll just have to see what happens there. If he doesn't get picked up, he's going to have a meeting with Bryan (on) Monday or so, and then we'll have to make a decision."

This may mean that GM Bryan Murray knows of at least one team that may be interested in picking up Gerber from the waiver wire, but it definitely means that Brian Elliott has passed his first test with the Ottawa Senators in the NHL; Tim Murray said "he's no longer an American Hockey League player as of now" and that Elliott won't be playing in the AHL All-Star Game.

There are a few options right now for Gerber. First, obviously, he could be picked up on waivers, or possibly re-entry waivers, by another NHL team. Alternatively, he could pass through waivers and return to the AHL, but that doesn't seem like a real possibility given Tim Murray's comments on Sharp on the Sens ("Let's worry about that when we get there. There's so many different things that could happen. And that's a very good possibility obviously. Europe's a possibility also. So, I think we just cross that bridge when we get there"). Finally, an arrangement could be made between the Senators and a European team, wherein that team would have the rights to Gerber for the rest of the season in exchange for some compensation, likely just paying the rest of Gerber's contract.

In his three-game AHL "conditioning stint", Gerber allowed seven goals on 108 shots for a goals-against average of 2.37 and a save percentage of 0.935 and had one shutout (a 3-0 win against the Philadelphia Phantoms).

With Gerber seemingly gone, the Binghamton Senators will likely move forward with Jeff Glass as the starter and Mitch O'Keefe, recently called up from the ECHL's Elmira Jackals, backing him up.

1. Glass (for Bingo): 13GPI, 3W, 7L, 2OTL, 41GA, 3.63GAA, 348S 0.895SP
2. O'Keefe (for Elmira): 24GP, 13W, 9L, 1OTL, 71GA, 3.09GAA, 579S 0.891SP, 1SO, 2A

Unfortunately for Binghamton fans, neither of the above-mentioned goalies have very impressive statistics. Still, Glass was a third-round pick (89th overall) in 2004 and has won the CHL and WHL goaltender of the year awards in 2004-05, and won the gold medal with Team Canada in the World Junior Championships that same year. I guess you could say he's got a lot or potential to live up to.

(Special thanks to Rob Glass of Binghamton's WHRW-FM 90.5 Radio for bringing this to my attention.)

In the event of a fire sale...

James "Jimbo" Mirtle released "An early look at 50 rental players", and his list includes four Ottawa Senators players. The list is based on players whose contracts are expiring and who're playing on "teams on pace to finish with fewer than 80 points: N.Y. Islanders, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Ottawa, St. Louis, Toronto, Los Angeles and Nashville." Here they are, with their MRI (Mirtle Rentability Index), followed by what I think about their possibility of being traded:

6. Martin Gerber: Are there teams out there looking realistically at Gerber as a possible NHL goaltender? Is there a market for goaltenders at all right now? If someone wants to take him, they can have him, but if not I think he'll be in the AHL for the rest of the season (if Eugene Melnyk doesn't have a problem with that).

9. Filip Kuba: The best acquisition that Bryan Murray has made as GM, and he's likely to be traded at the deadline or lost to free agency. The possible wrench in the wheel is that I was under the impression that Kuba had a no-trade clause that he waived to come to Ottawa, and I imagine that is still in his contract, but no one seems to be mentioning that. Still, Kuba is one bright spot on a dim team, and would be nice to retain, but he might demand a hefty raise (to $4.5M, if he's lucky). If he's out of Ottawa's range, the team would be best to get something for him than risk losing him to free agency for nothing. And, with his numbers so far this season, it's not unrealistic to expect Kuba to bring a decent pick and/or prospect in return.

25. Chris Neil: Neil has had a pretty good year this season, and it looks lik he's trying to earn another contract in Ottawa. If reports are correct, he wants to stay in town, but I don't think Murray will be prepared to offer him much of a raise from his current $1.1M salary, if any raise at all. Should Neil not get extended before the trading deadline, assuming the Senators are out of the playoff race, he could get a pretty good return. With Cody "Mr. Glass" Bass, Chaz "Greatest First Name Ever" Johnson, Zach "Bryan Murray's Adopted Son" Smith, and Jeremy "One Game in the NHL" Yablonski all waiting in the wings, and Jarkko Ruutu on the Sens' roster, there is room--technically--to dump Neil, but it would also mean dumping a long-time veteran who would die for the team and whose contributions to the community are significant.

29. Dean McAmmond: Oh, come on! Don't do it, Murray. I've got a McAmmond jersey, and I'd like it if he would stick around for a little while longer. Seriously, though, McAmmond would be a valuable role player for any contender to pick up, with a low cap hit, great penalty killing abilities, and the skill and speed to contribute on any fourth line. He could certainly bring decent return, but I'd still rather keep him with the Sens. I don't think it would be unreasonable to see McAmmond take a contract extension on similar terms to the deal he has right now, paying him about $925K over two season, and I think that's a great deal for a player who can contribute like McAmmond can.

Less goalies, mo problems

Signing Alex Auld to a two-year deal was a smart idea on the part of Bryan Murray. Auld is a capable backup (and sometimes starter) who will anchor the Senators' goaltending duo for the next two years at least.

The other half of the duo, however, is yet to be resolved. Brian Elliot is riding a wave of enthusiam at the moment, but is likely not the answer to the Sens' goalie question next season. Elliot has done well, but has not excelled in the AHL. He was drafted in the 9th round, and is not exactly a blue-chip prospect. That's not to say he won't do well in the NHL, but splitting a full season with Auld in the 2009-10 season would be a burden for Elliot. The 23 year-old goalie is dancing for his dinner right now, as his contract expires and he'll become a restricted free agent at the end of this season.

Martin Gerber, who has been twice demoted to backup by more consistent teammates, is highly unlikely to return to Ottawa. (In a more crass post, I like likely say "awwww-hells-no"). The real question is whether or not he will return with ANY NHL team next season.

That leaves the Sens with free agency, and it's slim pickings this off season.

Biron, Martin 31 PHI G UFA 3.500 3.500
Ramo, Karri 22 TBL G RFA 0.658 0.725
Roloson, Dwayne 39 EDM G UFA 3.667 3.000
Khabibulin, Nikolai \ 36 CHI G UFA 6.750 6.750
Lehtonen, Kari\ 25 ATL G RFA 3.000 3.000
Fernandez, Manny\ 34 BOS G UFA 4.333 4.750
Thomas, Tim \ 35 BOS G UFA 1.100 1.100

(Thanks to a Leafs forum for the goalie options. I know, it's sad, we're in the same situation.)

With either Fernandez or Thomas to be re-signed by Boston, and half of the others to find new homes at the trade deadline and then be signed, there's no long-term options out there for the Senators. Khahibulin (which would be a bitch to spell out daily) has redeemed himself this season after a shaky 2008-09, and might sign for less (gasp) than $6-million because of his inconsistancy.

There's much more to be said before the trade deadline, and eventually, free agency. This is simply the opening of the discussion. Where can the Sens go from here?

Edit: Yow. Shit. Thanks, TSN.ca player profile. Elliot is18-8-1 this year in Bingo.
He's doing 'aight :P

Gerber: Why a conditioning stint?

As Ben reported, Martin Gerber has been assigned to a two-week conditioning stint in the AHL. Is that just a polite way of saying that he's not only played himself out of starting, but right out of the NHL? I think that it might be a little something more than that.

According to Binghamton Senators beat writer Michael Sharp, Sens GM Bryan Murray said the following about the decision to send Gerber to the AHL:

"The plan is to get him playing again," Murray said. "Obviously we take Brian Elliott out of Binghamton, it affected them. It gives him a chance to be important on the team. Obviously to get ice time. And then we will do what we have to. If we have to put him on waivers at some point, because there's no trade value or interest, we can do that. And then we'll decide on the loan based after that."

Gerber's trade value is negative right now. We'd probably have to throw something else in the mix to dump his contract, and receive next to nothing in return. There are, however, teams that may be interested in acquiring his services for some asset, if Gerber dominates in the AHL. If The Gerber Effect rings true, then he should be good in the AHL; he's got nothing to lose.

Gerber sent to AHL

TSN is reporting that oft-ridiculed and oft-deservingly-so goalie Martin Gerber has been assigned to the AHL for a 2-week conditioning stint.

With Brian Elliot performing capably in his two starts with the team, this is surely the end of Martin Gerber's time in Ottawa, at least, symbolically.

We'll save the 'good riddance?' point/counter-point for another day. For now, we dance.

The Rumour Mill: Goodbye, Gerber

Reports in the Ottawa Sun (although the link is to the Calgary Sun) are that the Senators are trying to trade Martin Gerber (good luck), and will be waiving the veteran goaltender if (read: when) they can't unload him through trade. I think it would be amazing if Bryan Murray could actually get an asset in return for Darth Gerber, but I think the waiver wire is the most likely situation, if these rumours have any merit.

And, if these rumours do hold water, then you've got to wonder about the timing. The Senators have lived with Gerber's inconsistency and fragility for the last two and a half seasons, and I don't think anyone actually believes that Brian Elliott will right the Senators' ship for a miracle comeback into contention. So why not ride out Gerber's contract, and save owner Eugene Melnyk a bit of money? It seems to me that something is amiss, and I would venture a guess that GM Bryan Murray has a big trade in the works, or knows that a team will claim Gerber on waivers or re-entry waivers.

Should the latter happen, it would be similar to the Ilya Bryzgalov situation last season. (With the one difference that Bryzgalov was a goaltender with a relatively high value, and Gerber has a ridiculously low value.) After guaranteeing Bryzgalov ice time and seeing J.S. Giguere take the reigns as the number one, Ducks GM Brian Burke was unable to trade Breezer so he sent him through waivers, where he knew that the Phoenix Coyotes--most likely among others--were waiting to claim him. Perhaps the same unspoken deal is in the works with Ottawa, which would serve to take at least some of Gerber's $3.7M salary off the books.

The former, however, seems a mite more likely. It's no secret that Murray is thirsting for a trade to shake things up, and there is similarly no secret that in the new NHL, you have to trade salary for salary. Rumours have circulated that the Sens are courting the Columbus Blue Jackets in a trade, and that the Edmonton Oilers may be interested in both Jason Spezza and Mike Fisher; that seems to be the most scuttlebut in terms of potential suitors.

If I were a betting man, I would think that Ottawa is getting a goaltender in return from whichever team they trade with. If Gerber is dumped, I don't see the Senators running with a one-two punch of Elliott and Alex Auld in nets, especially considering the season Elliott is havign in the AHL, and the long-term development plan that would have Ells join the big team next year if everything goes well. Ottawa has been mentioned as interested in Chicago's Nikolai Khabibulin in the past (including a hilarious two-for-two goalie-swap rumour around this time last season), and the 'Hawks seem to be running a 1A/1B scenario with Khabibulin and Cristobal Huet right now. The positive thing about Khabibulin's $6.75M salary is that he's on the last year of his contract, meaning Ottawa could sign, recruit, or otherwise acquire a starter in the off-season, but picking up that kind of salary would mean Ottawa would likely have to dump one of their larger salaries (the likes of Jason Spezza at $7M per year, Dany Heatley at $7.5 per year, or Mike Fisher at $4.2M per year). Daniel Alfredsson ($5.4M per year) isn't likely going anywhere, and most other contracts aren't big enough to make room for Khabby. So it's a matter of whether or not it would be constructive to trade Spezza, and whether you can convince Fisher or Heatley to waive their no-movement and no-trade clauses.

(Can I make one quick trade proposal? Yes, I realize that it's an excercise in futility and won't likely pan out at all, but hear me out: After Gerber is waived, Heatley and Christoph Schubert to Chicago for Khabibulin, Brent Seabrook, Kris Versteeg, Ben Eager, and Chicago's first-round pick in 2009. Hello, rebuild.)

In light of increasingly uncertain economic conditions, I do have a feeling that most GMs--Melnyk included--would like to pare down their payroll, especially when it comes to long-term contracts. It might be difficult to find someone willing to take on one of the Sens' bigger ones, but it seems obvious that even without economic uncertainty, the so-called 'Tampa Bay Model' of building around your big three forwards doesn't work without solid defence and reliable goaltending. So in the event of a trade involving one of the Senators' bigger stars, the return may not be market value, but it will come along with the intangible benefits of lower long-term expenditures--in light of the real-world dollars Melnyk would be spending and of with an eye towards a possibly lowering salary cap--and the freedom to devote a larger percentage of the salary cap to defence or goaltending.

If Gerber is on his way out of town, he will be far from the most popular player in Senators history. Although I did defend him at the beginning of the season, he has gained (and, in all honesty, has largely earned) a rap for allowing untimely goals and having a fragile psyche. Still, his statistics will bear out a much more reliable goaltender than he was in reality:

1. 49-36-8 record, fifth all-time Senator goaltender in wins
2. 2.76 GAA, ninth all-time among Senators goalies with 25 or more GP
3. .908 SP, fourth all-time among Senators goalies with 25 or more GP
4. 4 shutouts, seventh all-time in Senators' history
5. 52.7% winning percentage, sixth all-time among Senators goalies with 25 or more GP

So goodbye, Gerber, and good luck next season wherever you're playing (my money's on Switzerland).

No-trick pony: Rangers 2, Sens 0

Another loss. Another ugly loss. Maybe they didn't play that badly, but they paid for their mistakes, and the Ottawa Senators didn't take advantage of mistakes the New York Rangers make. So the resulting 2-0 loss should be no surprise.

Still, despite his first NHL loss, you've got to give Brian Elliott credit. He came into the game looking extremely confident, and made plenty of big saves--none bigger than a breakaway save he made in the third period. I'm not sure if he should want to stay in Ottawa, considering the shit he'll get here compared to the All-Star start he'd get in the AHL, but Bruce Garrioch is under the impression that the Sens are on the verge of waiving Martin Gerber, so Elliott might be up here for a while.

(In another strange development, the Senators seem to be closely linked with All-Star goaltenders everywhere: Elliot was voted to be the started in the AHL's all-star game, and Ray Emery might have been the best goaltender in the Continental Hockey League's all-star game last night. It's too bad we don't have an NHL all-star.)

I'll also give Filip Kuba credit for his play in his return to the Sens lineup. He got a bum rap in the Sun for some of his board work, but Kuba had good defensive coverage and a definite positive effect on offensive zone pressure. Too bad he can't score goals. Still, he pinched in to help out a few times, and was good at getting back into position quickly.

Rough game for Jesse Winchester. He had one shift with two terrible giveaways, and didn't look solid on the night. For Winnie to get success, he needs to get back to the simple, reliable play he was executing earlier in the season. Come to think of it, a lot of Senators could use to simplify their game significantly.

It really is a shame that Christoph Schubert doesn't want to play forward. He's about ten times more effective as a forward, as evidenced by his team-high four hits last night. And even when he takes a shot and has it blocked--as happens extremely often with Schubert--at least he's not the last line of defence before the opposition gets a breakaway. Stick with forward, Schubert, you're better at it, and Ottawa's better for it.

Pre-game: Sens v. Leafs, Jan. 3, 2009

The Sens haven't lost a game since last year! Let's run with that, alright? Yeah, that works.

With Anton Volchenkov and Jesse Winchester both returning from their respective injuries, Ilya Zubov was sent back to Binghamton, and I'm betting Christoph Schubert will be scratched tonight. Zubov did well when he was in Ottawa, but I think he's still got some work to do on getting his decision-making speed up to NHL standards before he becomes an everyday scorer. His defensive awareness was better than anticipated, though, and he's got a place on the team in the future. As for Schubert, he was improved in the recent games, but Brian Lee has been better.

The forward lines, according to TSN, will look like this to start the game:

Heatley - Spezza - Alfredsson
Foligno - Fisher - Neil
Vermette - Kelly - Ruutu
Donovan - McAmmond - Winchester

And, assuming Schubert is scratched, the d-pairing will probably look like this:

Phillips - Volchenkov
Bell - Picard
Smith - Lee

And Martin Gerber will get the start in nets. No comment. Okay, comment. I'm not sure how he earned the starting role, but he's got it now. For the time being.

As for other headlines, the Ottawa Sun is reporting that GM Bryan Murray is looking at trading the first-round pick acquired from Tampa Bay (which was San Jose's originally) for some immediate help for the team. Apparently the players on the roster have a low market value, which I find hard to believe.

And finally, James Mirtle from Around the Rink has Daniel Alfredsson ranked fourth on his Selke Watch of the league's top defensive forwards. His measure is based on the quality of competition players usually play against, and the goals against they are on the ice for. Three Minnesota Wild forwards are ahead of Alfie on the list. Although Alfredsson definitely deserves consideration for the award, it's not going to be based on statistics.

Burning the midnight Oilers

I should have had a mouthguard in for this game, because the Senators had me grinding my teeth for the whole game. A solid game offensive game from Heatley-Spezza-Alfredsson paved the way for the Sens first road victory in 12 games, a 3-2 win over the Edmonton Oilers.

The Senators have put themselves through games like this far too often. Scoring the first goal was important, but allowing the Oilers to repeatedly climb back into this game put the Senators injury-depleted defence on full display. Without Filip Kuba and Anton Volchenkov the Sens were missing both an offensive contributor and solid defender. Luckily, the posts were kind to Martin Gerber tonight. Though he made some solid saves, Gerbs seemed to slide around his crease too much rather than lining himself up to the shooter, and wandering around the net in search of the puck was rarely a good idea.

I was certain the Sens were going to blow it in the final minutes. This is how they've trained me to think of late. But it's almost the New Year--time to be opptimistic, right?

The forwards did all they could to help defend the lead (why not just score another goal? But I digress…). Antoine Vermette made a heroic diving poke-check late in the game to prevent the Oilers from putting the puck on net. Nick Foligno made smart plays consistently in the neutral zone and offensive end to help kill the clock. Chris Neil played a physical game, checking the opposition and getting under their skin a bit. I saw Jason Spezza HITTING somebody in the DEFENSIVE zone. Wow. The fact that Brian Lee can handle 20+ minutes per game, as he’s done for the past three is a good indicator of both his potential and the faith that the coaches have in him. (I drool about him bring paired with prospect Erik Karlsson on the poweplay in the next couple seasons).

I’m sure the Sens will agree, it’s good to finally get the win on the road. The Senators have an opportunity to build some momentum (and maybe get a player or two back?) when they face the recently slumping (though they beat the Thrashers. Who can't do that?! Oh wait... the Senators) Maple Leafs on Saturday evening.

PS: I know I say this a lot. Best. Headline. Ever.

Isotopes win a game!

Somebody must have photoshopped this together. Or the Senators recently acquired someone named "Termette" or "Shermette". That's a puck in the back of the net. And that's what appears to be Antoine Vermette celebrating. Couldn't be!

Whomever #20 on the Sens roster is these days, he or she helped Ottawa pull out a 5-4 OT win over the Dallas Stars.

Don Cherry says that the team is bonding after this win and will 'turn it right around'. It's Cherry. I'm cynical. But here's hoping. The celebration after the win seemed like a joyous relief to the players. The guys have certainly got the beatdown from the media and fans, and maybe this Christmas miracle could lead somewhere good.

The game was not on TV, but refreshing NHL.com every few minutes was absolutely riveting.

Jason Smith scored his first point of the season (what?!?!) with the overtime goal.

Daniel Alfredsson was hit akwardly and little information has been released yet online about the possible injury. (update: After the game, Alfie said he doesn't believe the injury is too serious and he said he would likely be 'day-to-day'. What a guy! Even does his own diagnosis!)

Martin Gerber picked up the win, but without watching the game, it's difficult to say what variety of Gerbs showed up for the game. I'm waiting for the tsn summary. Auld allowed five goals against the Devils and didn't start the next game. Gerber allows four tonight, but picks up the win. Who will start on Tuesday against Philadelphia? Has Auld #1 status evaporated in the recent confusion?

Gerber to play again Tuesday

According to the Sens' official website, Martin Gerber will get his third start in four games tomorrow, after going more than a month between starts. It means, obviously, that previously de facto starter Alex Auld will play the role of back-up for the third time in four games, despite being eighth in GAA (2.21) and twelfth in save percentage (.919) in the NHL (Gerber's GAA is 3.40 and his SP is .880).

Despite struggling at the start of the season, you can't say anything bad about Gerber's play in the last three games. He's allowed three goals in those starts, which include his 2-0 shutout win over Tampa Bay on Saturday and two losses: 2-0 to Chicago (with an empty-netter) and 2-1 to Carolina. So you can't make any complaints about his play of late.

The peculiar thing about Craig Hartsburg's decision, though, is that you can't really complain about Auld's play at all this season. He has allowed nine goal in his last two games played, but his team hadn't given him much help--particularly in the 5-1 loss to Washington (which, for the record, never happened). Still, it's rare for a goaltender to lose the starting role without actually playing poorly to justify that loss.

Plus, there's what I've taken to calling "The Gerber Effect." It seems whenever Darth Gerber is given something to lose, he overthinks his job, gets nervous, and loses it. At the start of 2006-07, he played terribly and lost the position to Ray Emery. He played well to begin 2007-08 (when Emery was injured and there was no one to challenge him), but once Emery came back, he started playing poorly again--and, in the playoffs, the team was so bad that he really had nothing to lose, anyway, which explains his solid play against Pittsburgh. And then again, at the start of this season when he was announced the unchallenged number one, he spoiled somewhat good goaltending with absolutely abysmally weak goals. His solid wins in the supporting role have been because he's fighting from a weaker position, and he's got nothing to lose.

Then again, this may simply be a way for Hartsburg to get both goaltenders in form and yet also well-rested for the upcoming extended road trip. From Dec. 23 (partially interrupted by the Christmas and New Year's breaks), the team embarks upon an eight-game, 17-night road trip through Philly, Calgary, Vancouver, Edmonton, back to Ontario (Toronto) and then three games in the northeastern United States--and both goalies will most certainly be used on this road trip.

However, let's not forget the game on Tuesday is against the Atlanta Thrashers. Not that Ottawa--25th in the league right now, five points ahead of last-place Tampa Bay--is in much of a position to take any opponent lightly, but there is really no excuse for a loss to Atlanta. And if Hartsburg decides to use his backup (or at least 1B goaltender) for such a game, it might be a good decision.

I guess we'll have to wait and see how this thing works out. I don't want to call it a goaltending controversy yet, and I don't think that either goaltender will complain publicly enough to turn it into a bona fide controversy, anyway. But Auld hasn't played himself out of starter's position yet, and I--after defending Gerber at the start of the year--am not quite ready to put my weight behind him again. Twice bitten, third time shy, I guess.

Necessary win: Sens 2, Lightning 0

One thing is for sure: I shouldn't be this relieved after a 2-0 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning. At least I don't think I should have, but it seems like this team may not be as good as I--and so many other fans--like to believe they are.

I'll use one sentence to describe Martin Gerber in the game, and you can extrapolate that to represent the way the whole team played: It wasn't pretty, but it worked. Gerber may not have been as deserving as Alex Auld for the team's first shutout of the season (Auld should have had it in game two), but he earned it on the night in stopping all 24 shots from the Tampa Bay Lightning.

I've got a very strange feeling after this game. I'm not sure who was the best Ottawa Senators player on the night. Daniel Alfredsson had a great game (he scored the empty-netter), but it wasn't anything we haven't come to expect from him. Chris Phillips and Filip Kuba both played well on defence, and Jason Smith was solid in clearing the front of the net. I guess I'll follow CBC's lead, though, and give the first star to Gerber.

Dany Heatley definitely did not have his best game, or anywhere near it. I don't usually rag on stars because it's so cliché, but he looked bad. A lot of it likely has to do with his style, and it's inability to blend with the style this lesser-skilled Senators squad has to play: Heatley can't play a puck-retrieval game. It doesn't help that he's rarely skating full-out and always seems to have his stick 18 inches off the ice, cocked and ready to go, but some nights he forechecks hard and steals pucks. Tonight wasn't one of those nights.

Good on the second power-play unit scoring the eventual game-winner, with some nice passing from Antoine Vermette to Nick Foligno to Ilya Zubov to Brendan Bell to Alex Picard to mesh. It was like high school gym class or intramurals, where everyone had to touch the puck before you could take a shot on net. Great shot by Picard, that likely deflected off a Lightning defender, and was Zubov's first NHL point. (Although it meant Cody Bass was pulled out of the lineup, it was nice to see Zubov and it sounds like he's going to get a few games to showcase his skills.) It's too bad the first powerplay unit barely got a sniff offensively, though, because going 1-for-8 against Tampa Bay on the powerplay--no matter how well Bolts' tender Mike Smith plays--is not good enough.

And, part of the powerplay problems, Jason Spezza has to start shooting the puck, he looks afraid to at times. There was one time when he was in past the defenders (just barely, granted, but still), and he held up to wait for someone to pass to. Just because playmaking is his specialty doesn't mean it's got exclusivity on everytime he touches the puck. He finished the night with a single shot on net.

Zubov had a solid game on the whole, and Brian Lee played... well enough. It looked like he'd rediscovered that poise he had at the end of last year early on in the game, but a few defensive gaffes in the third period didn't make his case. He might stick around anyway, but I think he's more likely to head back to Bingo once Anton Volchenkov is ready to go. He wasn't a liability, but he certainly didn't outplay any of the Sens' other five defenders.

What does Craig Hartsburg do with goaltending for next game, on Tuesday against Atlanta? I think Auld has played well enough to keep the starter's reins, for now, and Hartsburg has handled the goaltending situation much better than John Paddock did last season. With two solid games in a row, though, Gerber is making himself a case if Auld falters. But please, don't falter, Auld. We all know what The Gerber Effect does to Darth once he's given something to lose.

Final note: Good to hear that Martin St-Louis only had eight stitches after the linesman's skate clipped him in the face. It looked like it might have caught him in the eye, but apparently it went along the bridge of his nose or something. Maybe he should think about wearing a visor, no matter what Don Cherry might say about him.

The Game That Never Happened: Sens 1, Caps 5

This photo was constructed in Photoshop. There was no game in which it could have been taken.

Let's just pretend that there was no 5-1 loss last night. It will be easy for me because I didn't watch the game that didn't happen, so we'll just act like the Sens only play 81 games this regular season. Awesome.

We can still give statistical credit to the players who took part in The Game That Never Happened, though; Jesse Winchester scored his third goal of the season, because he needs it, and Nick Foligno and Alex Picard still notched assists.

There is, however, the unfortunate incident of trying to explain Anton Volchenkov's fluke injury. It's easy, really; he was using his snowblower on the outdoor rink, and when he ran over a puck it shot it out--but Volchenkov jumped in front of it, out of habit, and suffered an injury. For that reason, Brian Lee has been recalled from Binghamton. Even though Brendan Bell is already here, as is Christoph Schubert. But whatever.

Ilya Zubov was also called up from Bingo today, probably because Craig Hartsburg is going to scratch a forward in an effort to wake up his team. Will it work? Nothing's made them smarten up yet, but that doesn't mean it's not worth a try. I'm not sure, at this point, which player will be out of the lineup. Nor am I sure whether or not Dean McAmmond is ready to play, but I don't think he is.

And Martin Gerber will start tonight against the Tampa Bay Lightning? That might be a can of worms you would rather leave closed, Hartsburg. Alex Auld is not the problem here. Hopefully it's just giving Auld another break.

To be honest, I can't believe a trade hasn't happened yet. I would say one is inevitable, but I've thought that trades were inevitable at many points this season and last season, and they just didn't happen.