The Rumour Mill: Goodbye, Gerber

Reports in the Ottawa Sun (although the link is to the Calgary Sun) are that the Senators are trying to trade Martin Gerber (good luck), and will be waiving the veteran goaltender if (read: when) they can't unload him through trade. I think it would be amazing if Bryan Murray could actually get an asset in return for Darth Gerber, but I think the waiver wire is the most likely situation, if these rumours have any merit.

And, if these rumours do hold water, then you've got to wonder about the timing. The Senators have lived with Gerber's inconsistency and fragility for the last two and a half seasons, and I don't think anyone actually believes that Brian Elliott will right the Senators' ship for a miracle comeback into contention. So why not ride out Gerber's contract, and save owner Eugene Melnyk a bit of money? It seems to me that something is amiss, and I would venture a guess that GM Bryan Murray has a big trade in the works, or knows that a team will claim Gerber on waivers or re-entry waivers.

Should the latter happen, it would be similar to the Ilya Bryzgalov situation last season. (With the one difference that Bryzgalov was a goaltender with a relatively high value, and Gerber has a ridiculously low value.) After guaranteeing Bryzgalov ice time and seeing J.S. Giguere take the reigns as the number one, Ducks GM Brian Burke was unable to trade Breezer so he sent him through waivers, where he knew that the Phoenix Coyotes--most likely among others--were waiting to claim him. Perhaps the same unspoken deal is in the works with Ottawa, which would serve to take at least some of Gerber's $3.7M salary off the books.

The former, however, seems a mite more likely. It's no secret that Murray is thirsting for a trade to shake things up, and there is similarly no secret that in the new NHL, you have to trade salary for salary. Rumours have circulated that the Sens are courting the Columbus Blue Jackets in a trade, and that the Edmonton Oilers may be interested in both Jason Spezza and Mike Fisher; that seems to be the most scuttlebut in terms of potential suitors.

If I were a betting man, I would think that Ottawa is getting a goaltender in return from whichever team they trade with. If Gerber is dumped, I don't see the Senators running with a one-two punch of Elliott and Alex Auld in nets, especially considering the season Elliott is havign in the AHL, and the long-term development plan that would have Ells join the big team next year if everything goes well. Ottawa has been mentioned as interested in Chicago's Nikolai Khabibulin in the past (including a hilarious two-for-two goalie-swap rumour around this time last season), and the 'Hawks seem to be running a 1A/1B scenario with Khabibulin and Cristobal Huet right now. The positive thing about Khabibulin's $6.75M salary is that he's on the last year of his contract, meaning Ottawa could sign, recruit, or otherwise acquire a starter in the off-season, but picking up that kind of salary would mean Ottawa would likely have to dump one of their larger salaries (the likes of Jason Spezza at $7M per year, Dany Heatley at $7.5 per year, or Mike Fisher at $4.2M per year). Daniel Alfredsson ($5.4M per year) isn't likely going anywhere, and most other contracts aren't big enough to make room for Khabby. So it's a matter of whether or not it would be constructive to trade Spezza, and whether you can convince Fisher or Heatley to waive their no-movement and no-trade clauses.

(Can I make one quick trade proposal? Yes, I realize that it's an excercise in futility and won't likely pan out at all, but hear me out: After Gerber is waived, Heatley and Christoph Schubert to Chicago for Khabibulin, Brent Seabrook, Kris Versteeg, Ben Eager, and Chicago's first-round pick in 2009. Hello, rebuild.)

In light of increasingly uncertain economic conditions, I do have a feeling that most GMs--Melnyk included--would like to pare down their payroll, especially when it comes to long-term contracts. It might be difficult to find someone willing to take on one of the Sens' bigger ones, but it seems obvious that even without economic uncertainty, the so-called 'Tampa Bay Model' of building around your big three forwards doesn't work without solid defence and reliable goaltending. So in the event of a trade involving one of the Senators' bigger stars, the return may not be market value, but it will come along with the intangible benefits of lower long-term expenditures--in light of the real-world dollars Melnyk would be spending and of with an eye towards a possibly lowering salary cap--and the freedom to devote a larger percentage of the salary cap to defence or goaltending.

If Gerber is on his way out of town, he will be far from the most popular player in Senators history. Although I did defend him at the beginning of the season, he has gained (and, in all honesty, has largely earned) a rap for allowing untimely goals and having a fragile psyche. Still, his statistics will bear out a much more reliable goaltender than he was in reality:

1. 49-36-8 record, fifth all-time Senator goaltender in wins
2. 2.76 GAA, ninth all-time among Senators goalies with 25 or more GP
3. .908 SP, fourth all-time among Senators goalies with 25 or more GP
4. 4 shutouts, seventh all-time in Senators' history
5. 52.7% winning percentage, sixth all-time among Senators goalies with 25 or more GP

So goodbye, Gerber, and good luck next season wherever you're playing (my money's on Switzerland).

A defence of Bryan Murray

This article would have been a lot easier to write if the Senators didn't lose to the last-placed team in the NHL last night. But they did, and there's nothing I can do about it now. On a three game losing streak, everyone in the city is wondering what is wrong with this team. Some are saying it's the players, while others think its management--notably general manager Bryan Murray. He has undeniably put his mark on this team, but I would argue that the results on the ice aren't enitrely, or even mostly, because of mistakes Murray has made. Rather, he's made commitments to players who aren't fulfilling their ends of the commitments.

Murray has, certainly, made some mistakes. The Ray Emery contract turned out to be a mistake, even though it seemed like a bargain when it was signed. Failing to find a top-flite defenceman to replace Wade Redden was a mistake, even though his hands were tied with the salary cap. Failing to fill out the top-six forwards, and allowing Cory Stillman and Mike Comrie to walk for nothing, were mistakes. It doesn't look like Luke Richardson is an NHL defenceman anymore, and even had a hard time at points last season. It's not certain yet, but the no-trade clauses for Chris Phillips, Jason Spezza, Dany Heatley, Mike Fisher, and Daniel Alfredsson might turn out to be debilitating if it turns out they're not working out. And the financial terms of the Fisher contract are debatable. But every GM has to make some mistakes; Murray has made a number of good transactions, too.

In terms of free agency, Murray tried to fix some things in the off-season. In signing Jason Smith, he tried to solve some of the defensive woes of last season with a proven veteran playoff warrior with leadership qualities. He re-signed Shean Donovan, possibly the best player for the Sens in the playoffs, to a reduced and very reasonable contract. He rightfully allowed Randy Robitaille to walk after wrongfully signing him last season. He didn't get into the bidding war for Mike Commodore. Even though we miss his skating and passing, Wade Redden isn't a $6.5M defenceman, especially not for six years, and Murray recognized that.

In trades, Murray converted some unhappy or failed assets into new ones. Joe Corvo demanded a trade, and was packaged with the not-as-expected Patrick Eaves for Cory Stillman and Mike Commodore--many pundits suggested Ottawa won the trade. Although Brian McGrattan didn't express any unhappiness, he couldn't have been happy with his role, and wasn't utilized; he was converted into a draft pick and isn't even getting ice time with the Phoenix Coyotes. Promising prospect Alex Nikulin was turned into a serviceable AHL defenceman, while Larry Nycholat and his one-way contract (signed by John Muckler) was swapped for Ryan Shannon, who has offensive flair and a more flexible two-way deal. Given Andrej Meszaros' contract demands, and Ottawa's payment structure, Murray dealt him for what's turned out to be a tremendous surprise in Filip Kuba, a promising (if unproven) prospect in Alex Picard, and a first-round draft pick for 2009--it remains to be seen how Meszaros develops, but I would say Ottawa has the upper hand on this trade so far.

In goal, Murray's had a difficult situation that would have been much easier if Ray Emery has simply fulfilled the contract Murray signed him to, or if Martin Gerber had fulfilled the contract that Muckler signed him to. Instead, Ottawa was faced with two unhappy and questionable goaltenders to start this season, neither of whom were tradeable. One had to be bought out, and it was likely more owner Eugene Melnyk's decision: Emery's contract was cheaper to buy out than Gerber's, and Gerber had a better season last year. With Melnyk unwilling (with good reason) to eat Gerbe's contract in the minors, Murray signed the cheapest goaltender with a reputation of team-first approach and solid, if not stellar, play: Alex Auld. Of the off-season free-agent acquisitions, Auld might be the best one so far, and is likely playing better than Cristobal Huet or Olaf Kolzig, two other (and much more expensive) free agent goaltenders from last off-season, would be.

When Murray became general manager, the Senators' farm system was rather depleted. After years of relying on younger players on rookie or second contracts as the bulk of the Senators offence (for example, Alexei Yashin, Martin Havlat, Marian Hossa), the Senators had developed a great team which wasn't privy to the high draft picks that built the team's core. On top of that, those players who were drafted, or picks which could have been used, were traded in deadline-deals that usually flopped. It's no secret that in the Binghamton Senators' past four seasons, excluding the lockout season where the team had a cornucopia of NHL players on the roster, the B-Sens have been, well, bad: Finishes of fourth (2003-04), fifth (2005-06), seventh (2006-07), and sixth (2007-08) in the East Division, with a record of 126-151-46 overall, one lost playoff round and four seasons out of the playoffs. The cupboard was rather bare when Murray came in, and that was one of the priorities he's established in his actions. Rather than trading prospects or picks, Murray decided to use them to re-build the team's prospect system.

What does this do for the team? In the short term, it means there are no deadline deals for the big names available. It also means that the team can develop its own skilled players, though. Under a salary cap, it's important to develop your own players and take advantage of their relatively low-priced and possibly high-productivity rookie contracts, especially when they're complemented by players like Jason Spezza, Dany Heatley, Daniel Alfredsson, and Anton Volchenkov. It takes more than two drafts to rebuild depth, but players like Jim O'Brien, Louie Caporusso, Ben Blood, Erik Karlsson, Pat Wiercoch, and Zack Smith--all picks from Murray's first two drafts--are a good place to start.

What does it mean for Murray? It means he's made a lot of moves, and some have been the wrong ones. Some remain to be seen, though, while others were proven to be solid deals. More importantly, though, a lot of the squad that Murray led to the 2007 Stanley Cup Finals remains intact, it's mostly the work ethic and team-first approach that has changed. Three coaching changes haven't improved the problem; will a change in general manager be any different?

Richardson gets a tryout

Don Brennan published a story in the Sun today stating that Luke Richardson has been invited to the Senators training camp. Got to give the 39-year-old credit, he might be in better shape than he was last year and certainly earned a look after how much he did for the team in 2007-08. The story went on to say that if he didn't make the Ottawa squad, it is unlikely that the Sens would ask him to go down to Binghamton--more likely he'd be hired to work in a coaching role. A quote from GM Bryan Murray from the Sun story:

"I don't think I want to do that with him," said Murray. "I think we want to have younger guys down there at this point. If he can't (play in Ottawa), we'll probably have something for him in the organization. He'd be around the coaches. I don't know that he'll have a title like that, but kind of an eye-in-the-sky deal."

You've got to give Richardson all sorts of credit for approaching this situation with such professionalism. Some veterans would be insulted to be invited to camp without a contract, but he's looking at it as the opportunity that it is.

As much as I like Richardson, I don't think there's a spot for him on the blue line this season. The top four positions are all but guaranteed to Chris Phillips, Anton Volchenkov, Filip Kuba, and Jason Smith, but Richardson wouldn't fit in the top-four anyway. Another year in the AHL might be good for Brian Lee's development, but I would think he would be better served playing in the NHL--especially since he did so well last year. And Murray has said he expects Alexandre Picard to be a virtual walk-on through camp, because of his potential and his one-way contract. And there's still Christoph Schubert, who's salivating at the prospect of playing a full year on defence. Oh yeah, and Brendan Bell could make a good impression. Then again, I didn't think Richardson was going to make the team last season, either, so I've been wrong about him before.

But Richardson's got a chance, at any rate. I'm glad that he'll continue in the franchise, in whatever capacity.

Sens sign Brad Isbister

According to MarketWire (via Kukla's Korner), Ottawa signed winger Brad Isbister to a one-year, two-way contract today. I assume, considering Isbister's limited effectiveness in the NHL in recent years and the current bumper crop of forwards the Senators already have signed, that this newest signing will be Binghamton-bound.

Isbister's ten-year career seen him with Phoenix, the Islanders, Edmonton, Boston, the Rangers, and Vancouver before signing with Ottawa today. He's got 222P (106G, 116A) in 541 NHL games, and has 44P (27G, 17A) in 63 AHL games. Definitely a solid depth signing, but I don't expect he'll be playing much NHL this season unless he turns a lot of heads in training camp.

Should Isbister be playing for Binghamton, that team will likely suit one of their best lineups in years. Isbister would likely be fighting for a top-six forward along with the legendary Denis Hamel, newly-acquired Ryan Shannon, Josh Hennessy, second-year pros Ilya Zubov and Alexander Nikulin, as well as youngsters Kaspars Daugavins and Peter Regin. And perhaps some of the other veteran forwards that are on the team. And let's not forget the defence corps that will now include Brendan Bell.

Somehow, I think Bryan Murray might be orchestrating a trade with one of the many forwards this team now has.

Defensive renaissance

Ken Warren of the Ottawa Citizen wrote a pretty good column yesterday (Sunday) about the incredible changes that have gradually changed the Sens' defensive corps since last season.

At the start of 2007-08:

1. Redden
2. Phillips
3. Volchenkov
4. Meszaros
5. Corvo
6. Richardson

And now, 2008-09, pending further movement:

1. Phillips
2. Volchenkov
3. Kuba
4. Smith
5. Lee
6. Picard

You'll notice only two common names between the two seasons, a 67 per cent turnover. Other changes for 2008-09 include defensive depth, signing Brendan Bell and drafting Erik Karlsson, Patrick Wiercoch, and Mark Borowiecki.

Solid story, and highly recommended to anyone who hasn't yet read it.

The Rumour Mill: More Meszaros offer sheet news

The Andrej Meszaros offer sheet has really picked up steam since yesterday, and has now been reported in the Ottawa Sun by Bruce Garrioch. Garrioch has suggested the team is the Tampa Bay Lightning, and the only thing holding them up is re-acquiring a third-round pick from the Pittsburgh Penguins to complete the compensation package. (There are rumours that Tampa has re-acquired said third-round pick, but don't bet the house on them.)

Craig Custance of The Sporting News has contacted sources and suggested that Atlanta, Phoenix, and Columbus were not suitors for the Meszaros offer sheet.

The other possibility, as Garrioch (and others) have explored, is that Tampa Bay--or whatever team is involved--is using the offer sheet to force Bryan Murray to trade Meszaros, or face losing him to an offer sheet. I'm not sure what team will put together a better package than a first-, second-, and third-round pick, but I suppose immediate help in the form of a decent defenceman could do the trick.

I suppose we'll have to see. Although only Murray can decide whether or not to match the offer sheet, most fans and bloggers are suggesting there's no way he'll do so. Which means Murray will once again have to use his creativity to solve the Senators' shallow defence, because I don't think Lawrence Nycholat, Brian Lee, and Brendan Bell are the puck-moving defencemen this team needs.

EDIT: A bit of clarification from Adam Proteau, who initially broke the Meszaros offer-sheet rumours, suggests that Pens GM Ray Shero is not interested in trading the Lightning's third-round draft pick if it means he's supporting an RFA offer sheet, and Murray is not interested in talking trade for Meszaros. If those two rumours are facts, Tampa Bay is not going to be able to acquire Meszaros directly.

An interesting backstory is that Shero, who must have been scared of RFA offer sheets for many of his young prospects, is working against one happening (a bit of solidarity). Or that some GMs are looking at the aggressive nature of the T-Bay management situation, and aren't liking what they're seeing so they're not playing along. The Meszaros Saga couldn't have been scripted to have more drama.

The Rumour Mill: Meszaros signs an offer sheet

According to a report on The Hockey News' website, Andrej Meszaros has been inked to an offer sheet with an unknown team for an amount in the area of $5M per season. From the THN report:

"Hours after Ottawa GM Bryan Murray held a news conference to announce the team was at a contractual impasse with restricted free agent defenseman Andrej Meszaros, The Hockey News has learned from an NHL source that Meszaros has agreed to a multi-year offer sheet with an average salary in excess of $5 million per season."

Murray has denied the report.

I remember hearing that the period for tendering offer sheets had passed, but I could be wrong on this. Or this could be an offer sheet that Meszaros still had on the table. Or it could be the offer from the KHL team we've heard about. Whatever it is, $5M per year is an amount I doubt Murray will sign. Although the compensation--a first-, second-, and third-round draft pick--will be nice a few years from now, they won't help the 2008-09 team.

I'm sure we'll be hearing more about this in the coming days.

Is there room for Richardson?

As everyone and their dog seems to be writing about, Luke Richardson wants to play another season in the NHL. And he wants it to be with the Ottawa Senators. But is there room on the Sens roster?

The Sens already have defencemen Chris Phillips, Anton Volchenkov, Jason Smith, Brian Lee, and Lawrence Nycholat under contract, plus Christoph Schubert as a natural defenceman who's been playing forward, and Andrej Meszaros as an unsigned restricted free agent. And Matt Carkner and Brendan Bell should be battling for NHL gigs, if their chances aren't great. Even if Richardson was given a contract, he'd probably be a little ways down on the depth chart--just like he was entering last season.

And just like last season, he'd really have to work hard to get a spot in the top-six, or even as a seventh defenceman. His play last season was certainly better than I'd expected, and there were some good times; a couple great fights, and the one goal he scored on his father's birthday, to name a few that stand out. But the season did take its toll on the now 39-year-old, and he was displaced by Lee when the playoffs rolled around. One big question is whether or not he'll be able to last the whole season.

Another big question is whether he's the type of defenceman we need. With Volchenkov, Phillips, Smith, and possibly Schubert or Carkner, we've got our share of stay-at-home, defensive defencemen. Is Richardson the type of player needed to round out the d-corps?

The answers will likely come in training camp. Richardson will show up, and he'll probably turn a few heads and bruise a few bodies. If he proves he can make it into the top-six, then good for him, and too bad for Bell and Nycholat. I wasn't disappointed by his play last season, and I won't be if he's on the team this season, either.

Sens re-sign AHLer Geoff Waugh

Who is Geoff Waugh? I don't really know. Apparently he played 71 games for the B-Sens last year, and must have been a bit of an enforcer; he only had six points, but complemented them with 139 penalty minutes, according to the Sens' official press release.

This is, without a doubt, a depth signing. Although it's a two-way deal, I seriously doubt Waugh will get a real chance with Ottawa--especially since he doesn't seem to be much of a puck-moving defenceman.

According to the Bingo website, the B-Sens defensive lineup looks like this (with my relatively uneducated assumptions of where the d-men would be playing), as of today:

1. Matt Carkner-Tomas Kudelka
2. Matt Kinch-Greg Amadio
3. Derek Smith-Geoff Waugh

Any Binghamton fans who know more about the team's depth chart, feel free to post a more accurate version right here. And, although unlikely, it is possible that Brian Lee and/or Larry Nycholat will return to Bingo for a little more seasoning.

EDIT: I forgot to include Brendan Bell, who I'd completely forgotten about. Assuming he doesn't make the Ottawa squad, he should figure in somewhere on the B-Sens top-six.

Easy summer for 2009

Looking back at the summer of 2008, it wa a pretty busy one for Sens GM Bryan Murray. If not for some shrewd mid-season signings, though, it could have been a lot busier.

Each of Mike Fisher, Jason Spezza, and Dany Heatley had their contracts extended during the season, saving Murray a lot of headaches had the three made it into free agency. It's been bad enough with only Chris Kelly, Antoine Vermette, Shean Donovan, and possibly Andrej Meszaros to re-sign (after a few other potential free agents were either traded or allowed to walk).

Looking forward to the summer of 2009, however, it looks like Murray decided to save himself a few headaches by locking up key players into multi-year deals. Aside from possibly Daniel Alfredsson, whose contract includes team-options if he fails to produce (don't count on it), none of the possible free agents should be difficult to re-sign. Dean McAmmond and Chris Neil are the only two UFAs who see a regular shift, and seem poised to make less than $1M if they are extended. Martin Gerber will also be a UFA, but the idea seems to give the starting role to either of Jeff Glass or Brian Elliott, if they're ready for it for 2009-10.

It seems a lot of the signings Murray has done have been to build a two-year plan, with flexibility afterwards of completely reassembling the team. Contracts that will come up after the 2009-10 season include Vermette, Donovan, Cody Bass, Nick Foligno, Jason Smith, Anton Volchenkov, Christoph Schubert, Brian Lee, and Alex Auld. Certainly not an impossible summer, but it will be difficult--especially considering all those defencemen's contracts.

One would assume that, as long as this upcoming 2008-09 season goes relatively well (better than last season, if not quite as good as 2006-07), then Murray will continue with the current two-year plan. And if not, well, there are a lot of reasonably-priced contracts that should look good at the trade deadline or on July 1, 2009.

The Rumour Mill: How valuable is Andrej Meszaros?

Although it might not seem important at first, the Jay Bouwmeester signing in Florida might prove to be consequential for the Ottawa Senators. First off, it lowers the bar on restricted free agent Andrej Meszaros' contract salary demands, because no one in their right mind would say Meszaros is even close to as important to the Sens' success as Bouwmeester (whose salary will be $4.8M, according to NHLScap.com) is to the Panthers'. And secondly, it removes one huge name from the pool of eligible defencemen, making Meszaros' trade value higher than it was previously.

Various sources have pegged Meszaros' salary demands around $4M per year, which seemed like the market share until Bouwmeester signed for $4.8M; Mesz, although a good player, isn't even 80% the player Bouwmeester is. Despite rumours to the contrary, Meszaros' value doesn't seem that high; Lee Versage made a good point on Team 1200 this morning in stating that if he was highly sought after, someone would have thrown an offer sheet his way. He remains a young, puck-moving defenceman, however, and there are many teams who would be interested in acquiring him if they could sign him to a long-term deal.

Something playing into Meszaros' favour is the rumour (take it for what it's worth), spread by Sens Chirp, that he's got a contract offer with a KHL team for next year that he'll run to if the Sens don't meet his expectations. Even if he does, Bryan Murray doesn't seem like the kind of man who takes very kindly to threats, but I do hope that the Sens don't lose Mesz for nothing.

A smooth-skating, puck-moving defenceman who can get the puck out of the defensive zone is arguably the Sens' most pressing need, and--despite the odd giveaway or mistake--Meszaros fits that bill. Brian Lee might do that in the future, or even in this upcoming season, but we have no way of knowing how he'll respond to a full 82-game NHL season--plus playoffs. There are options via trade, but only Murray really knows Meszaros' value, and which defencemen are truly available.

What do you think; is Meszaros in the Sens' future? Should he be, or shouldn't he?

How does Vermette compare to Bouchard?

Today, the Minnesota Wild announced that they'd avoided arbitration with their top-scoring centreman Pierre-Marc Bouchard with a five-year, $20.4M contract (a cap hit of $4.08 per year). This might seem like just another signing to Sens fans, but with Sens' centreman Antoine Vermette's arbitration hearing coming up, how will this signing impact the verdict?

On paper, there isn't really much of a comparison. Bouchard has scored 179 regular-season points over the last three seasons, while Vermette has only put up 125. While Bouchard has less playoff points (7, compared to 8 for Vermette) he has only played 16 playoff games, while Vermette's played 38. There is really no comparison in terms of offensive output, and Bouchard is undoubtedly a more important component of the Wild than Vermette is of the Sens.

Bouchard, however, was given more opportunities to produce offensively than Vermette. He averaged more than one minute more per game than the Verminator (18:50 compared to 17:34), including more than twice as much powerplay time per game (3:35 compared to 1:28). And Vermette had a lot more penalty-killing time (3:39 per game, while Bouchard averaged 0:02 per game); as we all know, his speed makes him a solid penalty killer, so Vermette's value is defensive, as well.

According to newspaper reports, Vermette has been asking for a long-term contract in the range of $4M per year, just like Bouchard's. He might be worth that to another team, but he hasn't proven the Senators that he can justify that kind of dough with consistent, timely offensive production.

Something to blog about

Based on the lyrics of "Something to talk about" by Bonnie Raitt.

People are talkin', talkin' about signings,
I hear them whisper, you won't believe it,
They think Williams is now a Senator.
I just ignore it, but they keep sayin'
We trade Vermette for Kesler
We trade Meszaros for Bouwmeester
We trade Neil for Cam Barker
Maybe they're seeing something we don't, Murray

Please give me something to blog about
Murray, give me something to blog about
Let's give fans something to read about
How 'bout a traaaaaaade?

I feel so foolish, I never noticed,
You'd act so nervous, what are you hiding, Murray?
It took a rumour to make me wonder.
Now I'm convinced something's going down.
Thinking 'bout signings every day,
Dreaming 'bout trades every night.
Hoping that you feel the same way.
Now that we know it, let's make a signing, Murray!

Let's give them something to talk about,
A little contract to figure out!
Let's give them something to talk about,
How about a free... agent... sign... -ing?

Please give something to blog about.
Let's give them something to figure out.
Let's give them something to read about,
How about a trade, trade, trade, trade?

Ooooooh-hoooooooo!

Listen up, Murray!
A little signing won't hurt!
How 'bout a second line winger?
A defenceman, a goalie?

Would you sign Vermette for 6 years?

It's an interesting question that GM Bryan Murray is asking himself right now. With NHL teams generally moving towards longer-term contracts for players, Antoine Vermette and his agent may be asking for a deal in the arena of 4-6 years.

When signing a young player for 5, 7, or 11 years, many teams feel that they are paying for the potential that a player will likely realize. To the player in question, I'm sure, that's A-OK with him. In the case of Vermette, the Ottawa Senators are posing the question: What is Antoine's potential? Where will be in 3 or 6 years?

The Edmonton Oilers recently re-signed a player with similar stats to Vermette, Shawn Horcoff, to a 6-year contract worth $33-million. Is Vermette worth this kind of money? Well, that depends on his potential, and as Ray Emery learned just last year, potential is about more than talent.

Sens sign Jason Smith, grittiness goes through the roof

Well, it might not be what the Sens need the most (a puck-moving d-man and some secondary scoring), but GM Bryan Murray signed Jason "Philchenkov" Smith to a two-year, $5.2M contract.

He definitely brings some qualities that Ottawa will need, though, and for that I give this signing half of a Sens Army stamp of approval (the Peter half; Ben will let everyone know if he'll complete the stamp). Smith is the epitome of the 'good guys' that Murray said he's trying to bring in, and although he's not going to score many points (168 points in 945 career games) or wow you with his speed, he'll bring his best effort every game and sacrifice his body (see photo at right) for the team.

I've taken the liberty of assigning Smith the nickname Philchenkov not only because his salary falls between those of Anton Volchenkov ($2.5M per year) and Chris Phillips ($3.5M a year), but also because his playing style is a bit of a synthesis of the two. He can make open-ice hits and block shots like Volchie, but he's also a staunch defender in the way Phillips is.

Say what you will about allowing Mike Commodore to walk for $3.75M a week ago, in my opinion Smith is a better player (if not quite as entertaining off the ice) and he comes at a much cheaper price tag.

This likely means that , even if Luke Richardson isn't ready to retire, he's not going to find a spot with the Senators. With Phillips, Volchenkov, and Philchenkov playing the gritty, stay-at-home style, the final three of the Sens' top six will likely be faster-skating puck-movers (I'm talking about Brian Lee, Larry Nycholat, and maybe Andrej Meszaros, or someone acquired through trade).

Depth chart update: An experiment in speculation

You know what? I'm just going to go ahead and do it. I know that Sens GM Bryan Murray is far from finished, and this lineup will likely be changed--possibly significantly--when the regular season opens across the pond in Sweden, but I figure that since I've got nothing better to do on this beautiful afternoon but sit in my danky basement and burn my retinas, I'm going to assemble a Sens' depth chart:

Heatley	Spezza	Alfredsson
Winchester	Fisher	Foligno
Ruutu	Kelly	Neil
McAmmond	Bass	Donovan
Daugavins	Zubov	Condra
Bashkirov	Nikulin

That is actually a pretty good top four lines, I think. When (if?) Antoine Vermette gets signed, we'll have a suspicious number of NHL-ready forwards. Unless someone is going to to very disappointed after training camp, expect a trade for of one NHL-ready player for a few AHL-ready prospects. Or perhaps part of a package for another second-line player, which would likely bump Jesse Winchester down to third-line minutes. I'm hoping that we don't get another quick-fix and have a repeat of the failed Randy Robitaille experiment (best of luck, Ropes), and that we get actual NHL-calibre help.

There could maybe be a bit more scoring in there, but forward lines look a lot like they did last year. Defense, though...

Phillips	Volchenkov
Nycholat	Lee
Carkner	Schubert
Lyamin	Blood
Karlsson	Kudelka

Egads. Obviously if we sign Andrej Meszaros there's more depth, but he's unsigned at the moment. There are rumours of an offer sheet for Jay Bouwmeester from Florida, which would be pretty awesome based on his size, ability to skate, and on pissing Jacques Martin off, but I somehow doubt it will happen. Doesn't seem Murray's style.

(Some information from HockeysFuture.com. Let me know if I missed someone... )

The Meszaros Dilemma

Bryan Murray's decisions regarding yound defenceman Andrej Meszaros are not going to come easy. After losing Wade Redden and Mike Commodore from last season's d-corps, the Sens are very thin on defence, especially ones of the puck-moving variety (think Redden, Joe Corvo, Tom Preissing, and Brian Pothier in recent history). The numbers aren't going to be easy.

I wrote a little while ago about what other signings, such as the Matt Carle contract in San Jose, meant for the Senators and Meszaros. The recent Mike Green signing, a four-year deal worth $21M, does not make things easier for the Senators, either. The numbers Meszaros are rumoured to be looking for, around $3.5M a year, don't seem unreasonable given the market. He hasn't played as well in the last two seasons as he did in his rookie season, but he's still a good player and he'll be in the league a long time. And, as shallow as this team looks on D right now, it would be a lot worse without Meszaros.

One distinct possibility, should the Sens not sign Meszaros soon, is that he'll get an offer sheet from one of the teams who've lost out on the Redden or Brian Campbell sweepstakes. The Senators should be able to match an offer of $3.5M or so a year, but if they elected not to the compensation would be a 1st and 3rd round draft pick for the 2009 entry draft. A richer contract, such as an 8-year, $40M deal (sounds crazy, but Kevin Lowe has done crazier things) would get the Sens a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round pick for the 2009 entry draft. Which is alright, but that does nothing to help the Sens' current situation.

There's also the trade route, and Meszaros' value has got to be pretty high right now. But the Sens' biggest need right now is for top-flite defence, so unless another team wanted to go D-for-D, then the deal wouldn't make sense for Murray.

I wonder if he'll sign 20 minutes after I post this... I kind of hope so.

The Rumour Mill: Free agency preview

This might be a premature free-agency preview with July 1st more than two weeks away, but I figured I'd give my take on the current Sens' roster, the holes that need to be filled, and some players I'd like to see be signed to fill them.

I'm looking mostly at free agents in this preview, but with rumours in the Ottawa Sun suggesting the Senators might be wheeling-and-dealing on draft day, there might be some established NHLers or young prospects coming in to fill some of the spots I'm going to go over.

Here's a projected lineup for the start of the season, based on players currently under contract:

Heatley - Spezza - Alfredsson
Foligno - Fisher - _____
McAmmond - _____ - Winchester
Schubert - Bass - Neil

Phillips - Volchenkov
_____ - _____
Nycholat - Lee

Gerber
Emery

And now, to get in to the needs:

FORWARDS

1. Second-line winger: GM Bryan Murray has been looking for a second-line winger for two years, going through Mike Comrie and Cory Stillman while looking. It would be great to sign Marian Hossa, but I don't think that will work if the Sens want to stay under the salary cap. Stillman was a pretty good success, aside from an injury that slowed him down, and he demonstrated a good rapport with second-line centre Mike Fisher, which is a great sign.
   Even with Stillman, however, there is still a weakness on that line, and I'm sure Murray would like to upgrade from Nick Foligno to find a better scoring forward for the line. I think the hope is that newly-signed college prospect Jesse Winchester, with his size and offensive abilities, can step up and produce with Fisher and whoever else is on that line. Markus Naslund would be great to see--he'd probably love to play with Alfie--but he's very expensive, so the Sens might be looking for a cheaper alternative, like David Vyborny, Mark Recchi, or Mike Johnson. And I might be alone in this, but I'd love it if the Sens to could sign Sean Avery. He can take an internship at Ottawa Living magazine.
   
2. Third-line centre: Obviously, Antoine Vermette is technically still an Ottawa Senators' asset, and could very well be re-signed for a pretty good price. I don't think Murray is ready to give up on the Vermette Experiment, especially considering his special-teams ability.
   If Vermette isn't back, the Senators have a few prospects in Ilya Zubov, Alexander Nikulin, and Peter Regin who I'm sure will get long looks and good opportunities to step up and fill this roster spot. Zubov and SputNik are older and now have a year of AHL experience and at least one NHL game under their respective belts, so one of them could very well get in. If so, Ottawa would have a finesse third-line after a pretty hard-checking second line, which is an interesting swap, but it could very well work with the speed that would be involved from Dean McAmmond and Jesse Winchester. If neither of these three are able to crack the big team's lineup, I would imagine one would be traded to get some more asset(s) on the farm team, rather than three skilled centremen.

Overall, I think the forward corps looks pretty good, but there's definitely room for improvement. I think Murray would like to pick up depth, especially enough to allow him to bump Christoph Schubert back to defence, where he's desperately needed.

DEFENCE

1. Two defencemen: I'm not even going to try to classify the Sens' needs as for a 'number three' defenceman or a 'number five' defenceman or whatever. I think it's pretty obvious that Brian Lee will be back on the Senators blueline after an impressive showing in the playoffs, and Larry Nycholat has a one-way contract and has earned a spot on the big Sens after an all-star worthy performance in the AHL.
   Andrej Meszaros is still around, and the Sens would be in the wrong if this blue-chip prospect was allowed to walk. I do believe that Murray will bring Meszaros back, even if it's just for a one- or two-year contract. And, although he had a tough go at the start, I think Mike Commodore is worth bringing back.
   I think every GM in the league is looking to sign Brian Campbell in the off-season, and Murray is certainly no exception. Reports are that he's going to throw everything he can at Campbell, but I'm not optimistic that's going to be enough, considering the salary pressures the Senators are currently under.
   After Campbell, there isn't much in the way of puck-moving defencemen. Rob Blake would be awesome, but I don't think he's leaving Los Angeles unless it's for Colorado. Ron Hainsey and Mark Streit are two names that come up as next-best-behind-Campbell conversations, so they'll be given looks. I think the Sens should take a look at Dick Tarnstrom; although he's soft, he can quarterback a powerplay, and he led the Penguins in scoring in the year 1 B.C. (Before Crosby, that is). Karel Rachunek was good while he was here, as well, and I don't try to hide the fact that I'm a Rachunek fan. I'm not sure how much he likes the idea of coming back to Ottawa, though.
   
2. Defensive depth: This isn't a hole that shows up on the depth chart above, but the Sens are seriously lacking in defense in Binghamton if Nycholat and Lee are both on the big team. Tarnstrom could be signed as depth, if he's willing to accept a two-way contract. No matter what, assistant GM Tim Murray is going to have a lot of work in signing young or middling defencemen. I won't go over names, but it'll be a task of the younger Murray to find needs and ways to address them.

The Sens are in decent shape defensively, but definitely need depth to fill out the D corps. Thank goodness Chris Phillips and Anton Volchenkov are such bargains, because it's great to have their steadying presence on the roster and on the ice.

GOALTENDING

According to the depth chart, the Sens have two NHL goalies. But Ray Emery will not be back next season, and I think that there are a lot of ways to upgrade Martin Gerber, even. I'm far from certain the answer lies in either Jeff Glass or Brian Elliott, but I'm willing to give it a shot. Nor do I think a goaltender that may be drafted this year could step in right away.
The free agent goaltender crop is slim pickings. Olaf Kolzig, Jose Theodore, and Cristobal Huet are all out there, and any one could be good, but they could also be abysmal failures. There's the prospect of running with an all-Swiss duo of Gerber and David Aebischer, which would be hilarious if nothing else, and would make a huge fan club amongst the hockey circles in Switzerland (especially if Streit was brought in on defence). I like both of Johan Hedberg and Alex Auld, but neither of them could be starters, and would at best be tandem-starters.

COACHING

Hello, assistant coach? We need one. These rumours of bringing John Paddock back are hopefully hogwash. Nothing personal, but I think we need to move on. I have a feeling that Peter DeBoer's trip to Barbados was a last-ditch effort to talk him into accepting an assistant coaching role, but that's just a personal inkling. I'm anxious to see the other names, though, and whether the successful candidate is one of Craig Hartsburg's people or someone Murray wants to bring in.

That article really made itself grow quickly. Congratulations on making it to the end. Let me know if there are names out there you think warrant a good look from Murray, or who you'd sign were you in his place.

Salary cap to go up again

Gary Bettman made his State of the NHL news conference before the Stanley Cup final opener yesterday (Detroit beat Pittsburgh 4-0, in case you hadn't heard). In it, he said that the NHL set a record in average attendance, and also had highest-ever revenues--meaning that the salary cap will go up once again this season. From the New York Times' Slapshot blog:

We would be remiss if we didn’t once again thank our fans. We reached 21 million in attendance for the regular season for the first time ever. We averaged over 17,000 fans per game for the first time ever. And our fans, we believe, were treated to an exciting, entertaining and competitive regular season from Game No. 1 to Game 1,230. The regular season was incredibly competitive. It went down to the last day of the season to see how the playoffs were going to play out. And every game mattered. And that’s the way we think it should be.

Revenues will exceed $2.5 billion this year. That, too, is a record. Our franchises are more stable than ever. And the relationship that we have with Paul Kelly and the Players’ Association continues to grow, and it gives me hope for the future. With cooperation, I know we can explore many more upsides that are available for us to, together, grow this game.

With this news, Bettman was asked a very pressing question about the smaller-market teams; namely, how will they even meet the floor of the salary cap as it continues to rise?

Revenues are going up for virtually everybody. Revenue sharing is intended to help bridge that gap. And as revenues go up, the amount of revenue sharing goes up. The system in that regard is working the way we had anticipated that it would. And I think clubs have demonstrated that you don’t have to be at the cap or even at the mid-point to make the playoffs and be competitive.

So I’m not concerned. It may be, over time, we have to keep looking at the numbers to see if the formulas are working exactly right. But I think it should be okay.

There's also the concern that the rift between big-market teams that can spend right up to the cap, and small-market teams that have to operate on a self-specified budget, will grow. And we might very well see the economic parity that the new CBA was supposed to bring about simply become re-established when Toronto can spend $60M or something, but Carolina has set their own budget at $40M.

Anyway, given that Ottawa already has $44.676M committed with a number of players left to sign, and increasing cap is good for us. Maybe Antoine Vermette, Chris Kelly, and Andrej Meszaros can all come back...

Brunnstrom Watch: Day one

Fabian Brunnstrom. The Swedish phenom. You may recognize his name. He's been called the next Daniel Alfredsson by The Hockey News. And he might be coming to the Senators.

A lot of sources had him all but confirmed to sign with the Vancouver Canucks, as reported by CBC's Scott Morrison. But, with the firing of former Canucks GM Dave Nonis, that deal is filled with uncertainty (reports indicate he's put off accepting an offer from Vancouver). Morrison said that the other front-runners in the Brunnstrom Sweepstakes are the Detroit Red Wings, Toronto Maple Leafs, Philadelphia Flyers and Anaheim Ducks. And some have mentioned the Senators as a possibility, as well, and what better place for the next Daniel Alfredsson than the home of the current Daniel Alfredsson?

According to The Fourth Period blog, who cited the Ottawa Sun (how did I miss that story?), Sens GM Bryan Murray made a pitch for Brunnstrom demonstrating the benefits playing for the Sens organization would bring. According to this story by Slam! Sports, though, Brunnstrom is looking for whichever situation gives him the best opportunity to break in right away, meaning the terrible, terrible Toronto Maple Leafs could be the front-runners.

The last time the Sens semi-committed to giving a player a spot without a tryout was the Alexei Kaigorodov experiment, and that failed miserably. (For those who don't remember, Kaigs was rumoured to be the Sens long-anticipated second-line centre, until he wasn't good enough, got sent to the farm team, refused to report, went back to Russia, and bashed the Sens coaching staff to Russian media for not giving him a shot. Not a great start.)

Although Brunnstrom started strongly, he fizzled as the season went on. Do we want to run the risk of making the same mistake we made with Kaigorodov again? Can we afford not to try, in case he really is as good as Alfredsson? I guess we have to put our faith in Murray to figure out if Brunnstrom is as good as people seem to think.

Here is what THN has to say about Brunnstrom:

"He's the first of a lot of players from Europe you're going to see in this situation," said the [anonymous] assistant GM. "It used to be you waited for European players. Lots of times you would draft them and keep them over there for four or five years to see how they develop. Well, you can't do that anymore."

Brunnstrom, a 6-foot-1, 195-pound forward, is a classic late bloomer. Last season he was playing First Division in Sweden, which is two steps under the Elite League and was a star at that level, which prompted Farjestad to sign him this season. He skates very well and his three goals and 13 points in 21 games are probably not a clear indication of how good he is offensively.

For anyone interested, here is a sampling of some highlights, courtesy of YouTube (as linked from THN):

Time will tell. We'll try and keep you posted on the developments as they come about.